XXIII.] PROMISE FOR THE FUTURE. 365 



be, for the most part, far superior to their prede- 

 cessors. We are justified, therefore, in expecting 

 better things for the future. But I need not argue 

 this point with you, for the tacit conviction that 

 better varieties are possible is one of the spurs to 

 our labor. 



We shall agree, therefore, that there is reason to 

 expect improvement in all plants. But why is it that 

 so many of the promising new things fail ? Now, I 

 mean to exclude from this discussion the element of 

 personal dishonest}^ in the introduction of novelties. 

 There are probably some varieties which are intro- 

 duced for the sole purpose of money- getting, the 

 introducer knowing that they are inferior, or old sorts 

 renamed. But I am convinced that there is less of 

 this practice than is generally supposed, and that 

 most of the failure that is commonly charged to dis- 

 honesty, is to be laid to other causes. I cannot believe 

 that even 10 per cent of the failures in the new 

 varieties is chargeable to any intentional moral fault 

 of the introducer. These inferior varieties are not 

 considered in this paper, for I have confined my 

 inquiry to promising novelties. The reasons why 

 promising varieties fail fall readily into two catego- 

 ries : 1. The false or unfortunate ideals of the pur- 

 chaser and seller. 2. The uncertain or unfavorable 

 attributes of the varieties themselves. 



1. It is a question if we should expect any new 

 variety to exceed the combined merits of existing 

 varieties in all points ; that is, it is probably better 

 to look for a variety which shall thoroughly satisfy 

 one or two demands, rather than all demands. The 

 details of horticultural pursuits are now so various 



