the New York City market extend over a k)nger period of time. The peak 

 of shipments from Vermont starts two months sooner to New York City 

 than to Boston and the ])eak of shipments from Connecticut ends one 

 month earlier. 



It should he noticed that New York. New Jersey, X'irginia, and Penn- 

 sylvania ship into New York City all year round. This can he attrihuted 

 to their production of l)oth fall and summer varieties. The peak shipments 

 of these four states coincides with the peak shipments from New England. 

 Therefore these states furnish the strongest degree of competition in the 

 New York City market. Oregon and Washington reach their respective 

 peaks after New England shipments of apples to New York have sul^sided. 

 Therefore, these two states can he considered as indirect competitors as 

 compared with New ^'ork. New Jersey, A'irginia, and Pennsvlvania. 



Areas of Strongest Competition 



In Boston the strongest competition faced hy New England growers comes 

 from Washington and Virginia. A certain degree of indirect com]ietition 

 is provided by New York, New Jersey, and Oregon. 



The competition that faces New England in New York City comes from 

 New York, New Jersey. Virginia, and Pennsylvania. The major indirect 

 competition comes from Oregon anrl Washington. 



Changes in the Contribution of Regions to the Major Markets 



An attempt will be made here to quantify the strength of competition that 

 New England faces and has faced in the past. Cities other than Boston 

 and New York City are considered here since changes in the competitive 

 picture in these cities will indirectly affect New England growers. 



A demonstration of physical shipments hv regions of origin to ynnnt 

 of destination is not the most desirable way of measuring competiton. Over 

 a period of years the production of apples fluctuates almost constantly, 

 resulting in drastic increases and decreases in shipments to the various 

 markets. Therefore, a better yardstick to measure competition than a 

 historical observation of physical quantities is the percentage change in 

 the supply of apples that regions contribute to each of the markets over a 

 ];eriod of years. If the percentage contribution of a region changed over 

 a span of years, then the change in the percent contributed might have 

 been due to either : 1 . a change in the total supply of apples within the con- 

 tributing region, or , 2. a change in the demand for apples between regions 

 relative to one another. 



The reason the analysis is based on regional shipments rather than state 

 shipments is because many apples lose their identity during the marketing 

 process. To illustrate, many New Hampshire apples are shipped into 

 Massachusetts. There they are repacked and sold by Massachusetts market- 

 ing agencies in the Boston and New York City markets as Massachusetts 

 grown apples. These apples often find their way back to some of the larger 

 New Hampshire cities and towns. In an analysis made on a state basis, 

 it would be quite possible to overestimate one state's contribution and 

 underestimate another's. To compensate for such discrepencies, it is neces- 

 sary to deal with regional shipments rather than individual state contribu- 

 tions. The probability of some New England apples being shipped to an- 

 other region and then returned to New England is quite small. Therefore, 

 the regional approach is more accurate with available statistics. 



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