ilically, the problem is to estimate the changes in the supply of apples, 

 population, and per capita consumption of apples so that a fairly accurate 

 picture can be derived concerning New England's future. The general 

 trend in apple production during the past 20 years has been downward 

 for all regions but New England (see Appendix, figures 5, 6, 7, 8). Con- 

 tinuation of these trends will find New England in a favorable position 

 for market expansion. 



Two possible situations with respect to the variables affecting the future 

 of the apple industry are considered here. Only two alternatives were 

 postulated because they seemed to be the most likely to occur in the next 

 10 years. 



First Assumptions — In the first situation, the assumptions are (a) 

 that income distribution will be the same in 1965 as it was in 1950; (b) 

 that the average per capita consumption (jf apples levels olT, therefore, the 

 same average per capita consumption figures bv income classes can be 

 applied in 1965 as was used in 1948; (c) that apple production within all 

 regions considered has leveled off at the 1948 figure;* and (d) that changes 

 in population numbers will occur within the individual states. 



Second Assumptions — In the second possil)le situation in 1965, the 

 assumptions are that (a) income distribution is held constant; (b) average 

 per capita consumption by income groups is again held constant; (c) 

 the same population changes are postulated as before, but (d) it is assumed 

 that the general production trend by regions for tlie past 20 years will 

 continue at the same rate until the year 1965. 



Thus, in assumption one, everything is held constant except population. 

 In assumption two. population and supply of apples are varied while the 

 rest of the factors are held constant. 



Assumption One 



Assuming that our first assumptions will prevail in 1965, the situation 

 facing the growers in the various regions is shown in Table 10. New Eng- 

 land will have decreased its surplus of apples from 365,000 bushels in 1948 

 to approximately 125,000 bushels. This reduction is due to the increased 

 total consumption assumed as a result of the increase in population within 

 New England. This movement toward a closer lialance of the consump- 

 tion-production relationship alleviates somewhat the problem of surplus 

 disposal. However, before any definite statement can be made about the 

 New England apple grower's relative position, a closer examination must 

 be made of the regions that compete with New England. 



Referring again to Table 10 it can be seen that the surplus in the Mid- 

 South Atlantic region will have been reduced by approximately 950,000 

 bushels from 1948 (Table 9). As a result of this reduction it is safe to 

 assume that fewer apples from this region will be available for shipment 

 into New England and other markets. This reduction of apple shipments 

 will reduce the competition that New England apple growers have to face, 

 and will make it easier to dispose of New England apples. 



The Mid-West was a deficit area in 1948. As a result of the assumptions 

 postulated in Assumption One, the deficit will be increased by more than 

 one million bushels. This increase in the deficit will probably result in a 



* Production in 1948 was relatively low so that this may be an underestimation. 



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