larger quantity of apples moving into this region from the current supplying 

 regions ( Alid-South Atlantic and Far West). 



In Table 10 it will be seen that the surplus in the Far West has been 

 reduced by approximately one million bushels since 1948. This reduction 

 may again result in a smaller quantity of apples leaving this region and 

 moving into New England and competing markets. 



Assumption One Summary 



Under our first assumption New England will have reduced its supply of 

 surplus apples. The Mid-South Atlantic and Far W^est will have reduced 

 tlieir supply of surplus apples. The Mid-South Atlantic and Far West 

 regions will also have reduced the surplus they have to contend with. As a 

 result, fewer apples will be shipped into New England markets, thereby 

 lessening the competition that New England growers have to face. Secondly, 

 the increase in the deficit in the Mid-West region will result in more apples 

 moving into this region than previously, which will in turn probably result 

 in a decrease in the number of apples coming into New England markets. 

 So, it can be seen that the amount of competition facing New England 

 growers will be reduced because: 1. the New England surplus will be re- 

 duced, 2. the surplus of the Mid-South Atlantic and Far West regions will 

 also be reduced, and 3. the increase in the deficit in the Mid-West region 

 will pull some apples away from traditional New England markets into 

 the Mid-West markets. 



Assumption Two 



Table 11 shows the situation prevailing as a result of the assumption of a 

 continuation of past production trends by regions. New England is the 

 only region where the production of apples has been increasing since 1934. 

 The remaining regions. Mid-South Atlantic, AIid-\\'est, and the Far West, 

 have all been declining. 



As a result of the increase of apple production in New England and 

 the very slight increase in population, the surplus with which New Eng- 

 land growers will be faced in 1965 will be approximately 2^ million 

 bushels. Here again, no evaluation of New England's competitive position 

 can be arrived at until the other regions are examined as well. 



In 1948 and under our first assumption, the Mid-South Atlantic region 

 was a surplus area. However, as a result of the downward trend of apple 

 production and the increase in population this region will now have a 

 smaller surplus. The Mid-W^est, as previously, will still be a deficit area. 

 However, the deficit will not be as large as before. The Far-West will 

 still be a surplus region. However, the surplus is smaller than it was in 

 1948 and under Assumption One. This will result in smaller shipments 

 of apples out of this region than in 1948 and the first assumption. 



Assumption Two Summary 



Under Assumption Two New England will be in a better relative position 

 than it was in 1948. The Mid-South Atlantic will now have a smaller 

 surplus which will increase the possibility of New England expanding its 

 markets and reducing its surplus. Since New England is closer to the 

 Mid-South Atlantic and Mid-West regions than is the Far West, New 

 England should be able to take advantage of any lower transportation costs 

 and compete successfully for the Mid-South Atlantic and Mid-West 

 markets. 



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