AORICUI.TI'RAK AI'IMIOIMMATIO.V lUI.U 1^4. 421 



COTTON AVHUAUr. KMTIMATKn. 



Mr. ('allam)KK. \\v do not mako a rotton ncrcaf^p c«itininti> until 



ubout tlio 1st of .Inly; tliut is tlic first lumijjp estimate; then we 

 ostiinntt' the coiiditiorj, ntid from these two fa«t<»rs fon'mst what the 

 [)n)hjihU' production will \h' , we make a prodnetion e>.timate about 

 the 1st of July, the 1st of Aujjust. the Ist of S««pt<Muher. and the 2d <»f 

 October, and that is the bust forecast w«> make. Y<»u see. nearly all 

 these reports have been made before the Department of Commerce 

 has bei^un to nuike ^^itmin;; reports in the fall. Then a final otunate 

 is made in December, about the IJth of December. We have Wen 

 accumulatin<j data for several vears with a view to makin;; another 

 forecast in Novemlx'r. and 1 tliink we now have sufficient data to 

 be«jin tiiis comiji*; year to make one more additi()nal cotton forecast 

 in November of each year. There has been (juite a demand for that 

 because there is (piite a ^ap between the estimate made oji the 2d 

 of October and the final production estimate will be in December. 



Mr. Andkrson. I understantl it costs about $270,000 to get these 

 cotton f^innint; statistics. Do you think vou couhl do it any cheaper 

 than tliat ? 



Mr. Callandkr. Well. I tiiink we have the macliinerv .mil tlt.it 

 we probably could if it were given to us. 



^ir. BrciLVXAN. The most of that is paid out in wages to the cotton 

 statisticians in each county, is it not i 



Mr. (\vLLANDEK. I think so. 



Mr. Buchanan. Have you anybody now employed who could take 

 up that work without much extra expense? 



Mr. Callander. We have men in every county and I think we could 

 probably arrange to get it. Of course, we have a head man — a 

 statistician — in each State who is familiar with conditions in his 

 State, and we get that sort of information from other sources, that 

 is, not on cotton, but we get similar information on some other pro- 

 <lucts by getting reports direct from the people who are doing the 

 work through our State statisticians. As it is now. the ginning re- 

 ports are, in a way. a check on the other, and it is very desirable to 

 have not only an estimate of what the probable production will be, 

 but a report of the actual amount ginned. We have estimated that 

 we could make the ginning reports for about -SI 00.000. 



Mr. BuciLVNAX. WTien you make your estimates after tlie ginning 

 statistics come in you have those ginning statistics to take into <'on- 

 sideration in making vour estimates ? 



Mr. Callaxder. We only have them for one report and that is the 

 December report. At that time we do take into considerati(»n the 

 ginning statistics, because the crop is pretty well ginned by that time. 

 as a rule, and this ye^r a great deal of it is ginned. 



In addition to tliis cotton statistician we want to put a grain man 

 in the office who will specialize on grain statistics and methods of 

 estimating wheat antl corn. Up to this time we have only had Mr. 

 Murray, tne chief statistician, and one other man, »vs statisticians in 

 the W^ashington office. The information comt^ in from the field and 

 it has to be rushed through, and there has never been enough trained 

 people in the Wa.shington ofhce to properly handle the material. 

 We want, if po.ssible, to strengthen the Washington organization by 

 putting in at least two more statisticians than we have at the present 



