52 MKTHOD OF DISCOVERY 



do you know Hint the man who really made the marks 

 took the spoons? It might have been a monkey that 

 took them, and the man may have merely looked in after- 

 Vou would probably reply, " Well, that is all 

 \\rll, but you see it is contrary to all experience of the 

 way tea-pots and spoons are abstracted ; so that, at any 

 rate, your hypothesis is less probable than mine." While 

 you are talking the thing over in this way, another friend 

 arrives, one of that good kind of people that I was talking 

 of a little while ago. And he might say, " Oh, my dear 

 sir. you are certainly going on a great deal too fast. You 

 are most presumptuous. You admit that all these occur- 

 rences took place when you were fast asleep, at a time 

 when you could not possibly have known anything about 

 what was taking place. How do you know that the laws 

 of Nature are not suspended during the night ? It may 

 be that there has been some kind of supernatural inter- 

 ference in this case/' In point of fact, he declares that 

 your hypothesis is one of which you cannot at all demon- 

 strate the truth, and that you are by no means sure that 

 the laws of Nature are the same when you are asleep as 

 n you are awake. 



Well, now, you cannot at the moment answer that 

 kind of reasoning. You feel that your worthy friend has 

 you somewhat at a disadvantage. You will feel perfectly 

 convinced in your own mind, however, that you are quite 

 right, and you say to him, " My good friend, I can only 

 be guided by the natural probabilities of the case, and if 

 you will be kind enough to stand aside and permit me to 

 pass, I will go and fetch the police." Well, we will suppose 

 that your journey is successful, and that by good luck you 

 meet with a policeman ; that eventually the burglar is 

 found with your property on his person, and the marks 

 pond to his hand and to his boots. Probably any 

 v.ouid consider those facts a very good experimental 

 \( rilication of your hypothesis, touching the cause of the 

 abnormal phenomena observed in your parlour, and 

 would act accordingly. 



NAV. in this supposititious case, I have taken phenomena 

 of a Y( TV common kind, in order that you might see what 

 arc th in an ordinary process of reasoning, 



if you will only take the trouble to analyze it carefully. 

 All ti lions I have described, you will see, are 



involved in the mind of any man of sense in leading him 



