HISTORICAL METHOD. 641 



proaching to the real ordei* of their filiation tlian could be obtained by any 

 other merely empirical process. 



Now, the evidence of history and that of human nature combine, by a 

 striking instance of consilience, to show that there really is one social ele- 

 ment which is thus predominant, and almost paramount, among the agents 

 of the social progression. This is, the state of the speculative faculties of 

 mankind ; including the nature of the beliefs which by any means they 

 have arrived at, concerning themselves and the world by which tliey are 

 surrounded. 



It would be a great error, and one very little likely to be committed, to 

 assert that speculation, intellectual activity, the pursuit of truth, is among 

 the more powerful propensities of human nature, or holds a predominating 

 place in the lives of any, save decidedly exceptional, individuals. But, not- 

 withstanding the relative weakness of this principle among other sociolog- 

 ical agents, its influence is the main' determining cause of the social prog- 

 ress ; all the other dispositions of our nature which contribute to that 

 ])rogress being dependent on it for the means of accomplishing their share 

 of the work. Thus (to take the most obvious case first), the impelling 

 force to most of the improvements effected in the arts of life, is the desire 

 of increased material comfort; but as we can only act upon external ob- 

 jects in proportion to our knowledge of them, the state of knowledge at 

 any time is the limit of the industrial improvements possible at that time ; 

 and the progress of industry must follow, and depend on, the progress of 

 knowledge. The same thing may be shown to be true, though it is not 

 quite so obvious, of the progress of the fine arts. Further, as the strong- 

 est propensities of uncultivated or half-cultivated human nature (being the 

 purely selfish ones, and those of a sympathetic character which partake 

 most of the nature of selfishness) evidently tend in themselves to disunite 

 mankind, not to unite them — to make them rivals, not confederates, so- 

 cial existence is only possible by a disciplining of those more powerful 

 propensities, which consists in subordinating them to a common system of 

 opinions. The degree of this subordination is the measure of the com- 

 pleteness of the social union, and the nature of the common opinions de- 

 termines its kind. But in order that mankind should conform their ac- 

 tions to any set of opinions, these opinions must exist, must be believed 

 by them. And thus, the state of the speculative faculties, the character of 

 the propositions assented to by the intellect, essentially determines the 

 moral and political state of the community, as we have already seen that 

 it determines the physical. 



These conclusions, deduced from the laws of human nature, are in entire 

 accordance with the general facts of history. Every considerable change 

 historically known to us in the condition of any portion of mankind, when 

 not brought about by external force, has been preceded by a change, of 

 proportional extent, in the state of their knowledge, or in their prevalent 

 beliefs. As between any given state of speculation, and the correlative 

 state of every thing else, it was almost always the former which first show- 

 ed itself ; though the effects, no doubt, reacted potently upon the cause. 

 Every considerable advance in material civilization has been preceded by 

 an advance in knowledge : and when any great social change has come to 

 pass, either in the way of gradual development or of sudden conflict, it has 

 had for its precui-sor a great change in the opinions and modes of thinking 

 of society. Polytheism, Judaism, Christianity, Protestantism, the critical 

 philosophy of modern Europe, and its positive science — each of these has 



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