SCIENCE OF HISTORY. 647 



progress of society, compared with intellectual or economic causes. But 

 to draw this inference is to forget that the statistical tables, from which 

 the invariable averages are deduced, were compiled from facts occurring 

 within narrow geographical limits and in a small number of successive 

 years ; that is, from a field the whole of which was under the operation of 

 the same general causes, and during too short a time to allow of much 

 change therein. All moral causes but those common to the country gen- 

 erally, have been eliminated by the great number of instances taken ; and 

 those which are common to the whole country have not varied considera- 

 bly, in the short space of time comprised in the observations. If we admit 

 the supposition that they have varied ; if we compare one age with anoth- 

 er, or one country with another, or even one part of a country with an- 

 other, differing in position and character as to the moral elements, the 

 crimes committed within a year give no longer the same, but a widely 

 different numerical aggregate. And this can not but be the case : for, 

 inasmuch as every single crime committed by an individual mainly depends 

 on his moral qualities, the crimes committed by the entire population of 

 the country must depend in an equal degree on their collective moral quali- 

 ties. To render this element inoperative upon the large scale, it would 

 be necessary to suppose that the general moral average of mankind does 

 not vary from country to country or from age to age ; which is not true, 

 and, even if it were true, could not possibly be proved by any existing 

 statistics. I do not on this account the less agree in the opinion of Mr. 

 Buckle, that the intellectual element in mankind, including in that expres- 

 sion the nature of their beliefs, the amount of their knowledge, and the 

 development of their intelligence, is the predominant circumstance in de- 

 termining their progress. But I am of this opinion, not because I regard 

 their moral or economical condition either as less powerful or less variable 

 agencies, but because these are in a great degree the consequences of the 

 intellectual condition, and are, in all cases, limited by it ; as was observed 

 in the preceding chapter. The intellectual changes are the most conspicu- 

 ous agents in history, not from their superior force, considered in them- 

 selves, but because practically they work with the united power belonging 

 to all three.* 



§ 3. There is another distinction often neglected in the discussion of this 

 subject, which it is extremely important to observe. The theory of the 



* I have been assured by an intimate friend of Mr. Buckle that he would not have with- 

 held his assent from these remarks, and that he never intended to affirm or imply that man- 

 kind are not progressive in their moral as well as in their intellectual qualities. " In dealing 

 with his problem, he availed himself of the artifice resorted to by the Political Economist, 

 who leaves out of consideration the generous and benevolent sentiments, and founds his sci- 

 ence on the proposition that mankind are actuated by acquisitive propensities alone," not be- 

 cause such is the fact, but because it is necessary to begin by treating the principal influence 

 as if it was the sole one, and make the due corrections afterward. "He desired to make 

 abstraction of the intellect as the determining and dynamical clement of the progression, ehmi- 

 nating the more dependent set of conditions, and treating the more active one as if it were an 

 entirely independent variable." 



The same friend of Mi'. Buckle states that when he used expressions which seemed to ex- 

 aggerate the influence of general at the expense of special causes, and especially at the ex- 

 pense of the influence of individual minds, Mr. Buckle really intended no more than to affirm 

 emphatically that the greatest men can not effect great changes in human affiiirs unless the 

 general mind has been in some considerable degree prepared for them by the general circum- 

 stances of the age ; a truth which, of course, no one thinks of denying. And there certainly 

 are passages in Mr. Buckle's writings which speak of the influence exercised by great indi- 

 vidual intellects in as strong terms as could be desired. 



