650 LOGIC OF THE MORAL SCIENCES. 



circumstances can do for mankind, as well as of what a government can do 

 for a nation, many different opinions are possible ; and every shade of opin- 

 ion on these points is consistent with the fullest recognition that there are 

 invariable laws of historical phenomena. Of course the degree of influence 

 which has to be assigned to these more special agencies, makes a great dif- 

 ference in the precision which can be given to the general laws, and in the 

 confidence with which predictions can be grounded on them. Whatever 

 depends on the peculiarities of individuals, combined with the accident of 

 the positions they hold, is necessarily incapable of being foreseen. Un- 

 doubtedly these casual combinations might be eliminated like any others, 

 by taking a sufficiently large cycle : the peculiarities of a great historical 

 character make their influence felt iii history sometimes for several thou- 

 sand years, but it is highly probable that they will make no difference at 

 all at the end of fifty millions. Since, however, we can not obtain an aver- 

 age of the vast length of time necessary to exhaust all the possible combi- 

 nations of great men and circumstances, as much of the law of evolution of 

 human affairs as depends upon this average, is and remains inaccessible to 

 us; and within the next thousand years, which are of considerably more 

 importance to us than the whole remainder of the fifty millions, the favor- 

 able and unfavorable combinations which will occur will be to us purely 

 accidental. We can not foresee the advent of great men. Those who in- 

 troduce new speculative thoughts or great practical conceptions into the 

 world, can not have their epoch fixed beforehand. What science can do, 

 is this. It can trace through past history the general causes which had 

 brought mankind into that preliminary state which, when the right sort of 

 great man appeared, rendered them accessible to his influence. If this 

 state continues, experience renders it tolerably certain that in a longer or 

 shorter period the great man will be produced ; provided that the general 

 circumstances of the country and people are (which very often they are 

 not) compatible with his existence; of which point also, science can in 

 some measure judge. It is in this manner that the results of progress, ex- 

 cept as to the celerity of their production, can be, to a certain extent, re- 

 duced to regularity and law. And the belief that they can be so, is equal- 

 ly consistent with assigning very great, or very little efiicacy, to the influ- 

 ence o^ exceptional men, or of the acts of governments. And the same 

 may be said of all other accidents and disturbing causes. 



§ 4. It would nevertheless be a great error to assign only a trifling im- 

 portance to the agency of eminent individuals, or of governments. It must 

 not be concluded that the influence of either is small, because they can not 

 bestow what the general circumstances of society, and the course of its 

 previous history, have not prepared it to receive. Neither thinkers nor 

 governments effect all that they intend, but in compensation they often 

 produce important results which they did not in the least foresee. Great 

 men, and great actions, are seldom wasted ; they send forth a thousand un- 

 seen influences, more effective than those which are seen ; and though nine 

 out of every ten things done, with a good purpose, by those who are in 

 advance of their age, produce no material effect, the tenth thing produces 

 effects twenty times as great as any one would have dreamed of predict- 

 ing from it. Even the men who for want of sufiiciently favorable circum- 

 stances left no impress at all upon their own age, have often been of the 

 greatest value to posterity. Who could appear to have lived more entire- 

 ly in vain than some of the early heretics? They were burned or mas- 



