Figure 7. Seasonal Variation in Percent of Broiler Chick 

 Replacements in Maine, by Weeks, 1957-1959 * 



1957 



1958 



5959 



weeks for the years 1957-1959 in Maine. Note that the peak month for 

 placements is either May or June. The trough of the placement cycle 

 occurred during the third week of Septemher of each year. 



As the amount of time required to produce broilers to market weight 

 decreases, the peak and trough of the placement cycle will shift. The 

 peak will occur later in the spring, and the trough will occur later in 

 the fall. This is hased on the assumptions that consumer preference will 

 not shift from the present seasonal pattern, that the market weight 

 presently desired will not change, and that processors cannot reduce the 

 amplitude of the cycle materially by changing the form of some of their 

 output (roosters, for example) during the months when demand for 

 fresh broilers is at a minimum. 



The cyclical pattern illustrated in Figure 7 appears to show that the 

 amplitude of the placement cycle was increasing over time; but this is 

 more apparent than real. In 1959, output was expanded considerably in 

 the early months but was followed by a major contraction and adjust- 

 ments when broiler prices became abnormally low. In New England 

 many feed manufacturers and hatcheries ceased the operation of produc- 

 ing broilers with contract growers during the latter part of 1959. 



Contract Growers' Rate of Output 



The seasonal fluctuations in broiler consumption reflected in broiler 

 chick replacements made it impossible for all contract growers to pro- 

 duce at a constant rate of output throughout the year. Because their 

 need for growers varied seasonally, integrators devised methods of de- 



* Broiler Chick Report, U. S. Department of Agriculture. 



16 



