CONTENTS 



SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 3 



INTRODUCTION 5 



The Technological Features of Forage Growth 5 



Weather Pattern 7 



Equipment Complement 7 



The Economic Problem of Forage Harvesting and Utilization 8 



Analytical Procedure 8 



THE FORAGE PRODUCTION-UTILIZATION SIMULATION MODEL 11 



Computer Programs 11 



Stage I 11 



Stage II 11 



Stage III 13 



DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ANALYSIS 13 



Acreage 13 



Forage Crop Yield 13 



Type of Forage 17 



Total Losses of Forage 17 



Weather Patterns and Date of Harvest 17 



Labor and Machinery Requirements 18 



Equipment Capacities 19 



Labor Requirements for Cows 21 



Harvesting Equipment Investment and Annual Costs 21 



Milk Production 24 



Cow Ability 25 



Stage of Lactation 25 



Other Factors 25 



Forage Input 25 



Grain Input 25 



The Milk Production Surfaces 25 



EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES WITH SIMULATION MODELS 32 



Phase I Analysis 32 



Most Profitable Grain Feeding Method 33 



Most Profitable Forage Harvest Systems 33 



Phase II Analysis 34 



Influence of Date of Cut and Weather Pattern on Forage Balance 34 



75 Cows and Selected Hay Harvest Systems 34 



100 Cows and Selected Hay Harvest Systems 35 



Number of Cows Varying and Selected Hay Harvesting Systems 35 



Influence of Date of Cut and Weather Pattern on Gross Farm Income 35 



75 Cows and Selected Hay Harvesting Systems 35 



100 Cows and Selected Hay Harvesting Systems 38 



Number of Cows Varying and Selected Hay Harvesting Systems 38 



Influence of Date of Cut and Weather Pattern on Net Farm Income 38 



75 Cows and the Crushed, Field Cured, and Baled Hay Harvest System 38 

 75 Cows and the Crushed, Baled, and Barn Dried Without Heat 



Hay Harvest System 40 



100 Cows and the Crushed, Field Cured, and Baled Hay 



Harvest System 40 



100 Cows and the Crushed, Baled, and Barn Dried Without 



Heat Hay Harvesting System 40 



Number of Cows Varying and the Crushed, Field Cured, and 



Baled Hay Harvest System 40 



Number of Cows Varying and the Crushed, Baled and Barn 



Dried Without Heat Hay Harvesting System 42 



Most Profitable Hay Harvest Date of Cut and System 42 



