SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 



This study assessed the effect of the forage harvesting system; the 

 date that harvest begins; the weather pattern; the method of grain feed- 

 ing; and the size of herd on farm income. Simulation techniques were 

 used to represent forage harvesting, feeding dairy cows, selling or buy- 

 ing forage, and output of milk. The simulation model as developed for 

 this study was comprised of 5 computer programs written in FORTRAN 

 with FORMAT. The model was built in 3 stages: Stage I simulated 

 mowing and harvesting of forage by date of cut and recorded the re- 

 sources used to perform these operations; Stage II simulated the pro- 

 duction of milk using the forage produced in Stage I and recorded the 

 resources used; and Stage III economically related Stage I and Stage II 

 and presented income and resource use statements. 



A major advantage of simulation analysis with computers is the 

 speed of analysis completion after the simulation model has been de- 

 veloped. The methods used are similar to those of the conventional 

 budget techniques. The data used are the same, and the data problems 

 are comparable, but much less time is required for the analysis. 



When coefficients for the simulation analysis model were developed 

 for forage production, quality and quantity relations as influenced by 

 starting date of cut, milk production according to quality of forage, and 

 labor and machinery productivity were considered. In performing the 

 analysis, particular emphasis was placed upon the development of 

 relation between systems of harvesting forage, quality-quantity forage 

 production, and dairy cow milk responses to quality of forage. The an- 

 alysis was carried out in 2 phases. Phase I analyzed the interactions of 

 6 hay harvesting systems, 3 grain feeding systems, 3 cow number options, 

 3 harvest starting dates, and 3 weather patterns representing "wet," 

 "dry," and "average" conditions during the harvesting season. In Phase 

 II, only 2 hay harvesting systems, a single grain system, and 52 weather 

 patterns were vised. Phase I was designed to evaluate harvest systems and 

 select the most profitable combinations. Phase II was designed to study 

 more weather patterns to obtain variations in income for each starting 

 date of cut as influenced by weather. 



Based on available data and the analysis made for this study, there 

 is no economic justification for beginning hay operations as early as 

 June 1. However, substantial declines in net farm income are encounter- 

 ed by postponing the beginning of the hay operation to as late as June 

 30. These observations held for all harvesting systems analyzed. The 

 results indicated that the optimal date, economically, to begin harvesting 

 operations appears to be around June 15. 



There were 6 machinery systems analyzed; 4 were capable of har- 

 vesting hay in one day. Of these 4 systems, the crushed, baled, and barn 

 dried with heat, and the flail cut, flail harvest were about equal in net 

 income; the grass silage system was not quite as profitable; and the 

 system using heat drying was considerably less profitable. Of the two 

 remaining systems (that rely on natural field curing) the method using 

 a crusher was more profitable. 



