Rain Damaged Forage Functions (Figure 13B) 



A. Grain Constant (6.3) 



F =30.3358 - 0.1858 (T) 

 M = 1.0890 + 0.7769 (F) 



B. Milk Constant (35.0) 



F =29.9294-0.2794 (T) 

 G = 6.6449 + 0.1551 (T) 



C. Milk-Grain Ratio (4:1) 



F = 27.4294 - 0.1294 (T) 

 M = — 7.4357 + 1.6938 (F) 

 G = M/4 



EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES WITH SIMULATION MODELS 



The situations that can be analyzed using simulation analysis are 

 numerous. Different research questions can be answered by: (1) 

 changing production functions within the model, such as a forage yield 

 response; or (2) adding an alternative machinery system or a weather 

 pattern sequence. The number of obtainable solutions of the simulation 

 model is the product of the number of alternatives included. The initial 

 design for this analysis was to appraise: 6 forage harvesting sys- 

 tems, 52 weather patterns, 3 forage harvest starting dates, 3 grain feeding 

 systems, and 3 sizes of herd. 



All combinations of these options would have required 8,424 solu- 

 tions. This would have created a data summarization problem, which 

 raised a question as to the necessity for computation of all the possible 

 problem combinations. The machine computation, therefore, was 

 divided into 2 phases. Phase I analysis was designed to evaluate grain 

 feeding methods and machine harvest systems to select the most profit- 

 able combinations. Phase II analyisis was designed to study variations 

 in forage balance (purchases or sales) and in income as influenced by 

 52 weather patterns for 2 harvest systems, 3 dates of cut, and 3 herd 

 sizes. 



Phase I Analysis 



Phase I included combinations of 6 forage harvesting systems, 3 

 dates of cut, 3 grain feeding systems, 3 herd sizes, and 3 weather pat- 

 terns. A total of only 486 solutions were possible. The 3 weather patterns 

 were selected from 52 years of records from 1910 through 1961 to repre- 

 sent "average," "wet," and "dry" rainfall-clear day weather relations. 

 Acreage of hayland was set at 100 acres. Herd size was set at 3 levels — 

 75 cows, 100 cows, and allowed to vary so as to consume all the eatable 

 forage produced. 



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