6. There is a "dated time" problem. There must be compatibility 

 between the length of run, the dates of the resource bases, and the impli- 

 cit dates of the level of technology so that results will be meaningful. 



7. The length of run incorporated in the model is of crucial im- 

 portance. Shortening the length of run results in more inelastic supply 

 estimates and accentuates the effect of supply shifters on milk output. 

 Extending the length of run accentuates the problems associated with 

 input-output coefficients, resource bases, and relevant alternatives in 

 .specifying the model. 



Particular Problems Associated with This Study 



1. It is recognized that the input-output coefficients of the model 

 represent a higher level of response than was projected for 1965. Indica- 

 tions are that the coefficients used were closer to the expected 1970 

 level of technology. 



2. Computer capabilities for handling very large matrices were not 

 available when the programming for this study was started. For this 

 reason, multiple farm models with transfer activities and aggregate con- 

 straints could not be handled. 



3. The updating of the resource base from 1960 to 1965 was not 

 planned in the original scheme but was added as a superstructure when 

 its importance was discovered. A preferable procedure would be to have 

 an observed 1965 resource base rather than a resource base updated from 

 Markov Chains or frequency distribution data. 



4. A more efficient way of dealing with aggregation errors might be 

 to estimate their magnitude and correct for the bias. Much meaningful 

 economic detail is lost in the methods of sorting farms to minimize 

 aggregation error. The homogeneous restriction method of grouping 

 farms is exceedingly difficult to trace through time. It advantages in 

 reducing aggregation error are offset by the difficulties in projecting the 

 distribution of farms between homogeneous restriction categories. 



Contributions of Micro to Macro Research 



Besides assessing potential supply, the micro to macro approach has 

 many useful joint products. Among these are input-output data and 

 models suitable for farm management analysis. The major research 

 effort in developing the input-output relationships and models can be 

 used directly in studios of optimal organization and adjustment of 

 farms. 2 



This study focused the efforts of many research workers. In that 

 way new insights were gained and significant contribution to method- 

 ology made. One excellent illustration is the definitive treatment of 



20 See Appendix A for a partial listing of studies which pertain to this regional 

 research project. 



33 



