$123 plus the shore cottage shadow price of $154 for the basin. The value of a 

 cottage located on 50-foot shore length frontage, one-half acre in size, and 

 with a boat, would have to be raised from $12,000 to $20,500 before expansion 

 in this size of cottage would occur. For the same cottage but without boat 

 (cottage 2), the price would have to be raised from $10,800 to $19,600. 



For the other vacation cottages included as alternatives, the price at which 

 they would enter the solution was calculated. The implied prices as the result of 

 economic forces at work in the linear programming model covering a variety of 

 water and related land recreational uses were substantially above those used in 

 the model as original prices. B cottage 3 and cottage 4 differ from B cottage 1 

 and cottage 2 by having an additional 50 feet of shoreline, with lot size main- 

 tained at one-half acre. The data in Table 4.3 indicate that 50 more feet of 

 shoreline are worth in the neighborhood of $5,000 or $ 100 a running foot. The 

 differences between B cottage 3 and cottage 4 with B cottage 5 and cottage 6 

 represent differences in acreage with shoreline held constant. The added half- 

 acre was worth about $3,000 or about $6,000 per acre. 



4.5 Effect of Raising Vacation Cottage Price 



The monthly price for B cottage 5 was increased from $195 to $390 and for 

 cottage 6 from $175 to $385. These levels of increases were necessary to obtain 

 changes in the basis and reflected changes in shadow prices. The higher priced lot 

 for B cottage 5 and cottage 6 only served to replace B cottage 1 and cottage 2 in 

 the analysis. Number of cottages remained the same, and the shadow price for 

 one vacation cottage decUned from $154 to $146 for the basin. In order for 

 expansion to occur in cottages typical of B cottage 5 and cottage 6, the $380 or 

 so would have to be raised by about one-third. This would increase the price of 

 one-acre lots with 100 feet of shore front with cottage to a price range of $35,000. 



Based on real estate advertisements in newspapers and local magazines, the 

 implicit prices found in the model for shoreline lengths, conservation reserve, 

 and cottages of different sizes and location appeared to be reasonable approxi- 

 mations of current prices toward which the 1970-72 price situation was tending. 



The influence of raising the price of B cottage 5 and cottage 6 on other 

 shadow prices varied. The shadow price for conservation reserve and shoreline 

 length changed very little. On the other hand, the lake-surface shadow price 

 (basin-wide) decHned from $2.45 to $1.00 and was the only major item that 

 experienced a large relative damage. The large lot sizes reduce demands on lake 

 resources and lake surface. In resource reallocation, day use of beach facilities 

 was most affected by a decline in number of users. Boating use remained 

 unchanged. 



The increased lot size and accompanying increased shoreline length could 

 be a major planning tool for regulating water use. By requiring large lot size, 

 less demands would be placed upon the lake-surface water; this usage would 

 contrast with the current trend for shorter shoreline lengths of about 50 feet, 

 as under standard market and recreational resort development practices. 



4.6 Public and Private Park Tenting and Day Use 



In the model, pubhc park land and shoreline were removed from total recrea- 

 tion resource and included as individual activities. 



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