PART X. PROJECTED RESOURCE-USE PATTERNS 

 AND IMPLIED PRICES, 1980. 



The projected resource-use pattern and implied prices to 1980 were based on 

 population increase and increases in the industrial water use in the central area. 

 Projected water-supply needs and a plan for providing those needs through the 

 year 2020 were completed in March 1912} Population projections used here are 

 based on the phase one report of this study and modified to reflect more recent 

 change in growth patterns. 



10.1 Population Projection 



There are three areas of population growth. These are rural residences, 

 intensive residential, and urban. Because only a part of each community was 

 usually included in the watershed, the population projection by township was 

 based on town growth prorated for the proportion of the community located in 

 the Ashuelot watershed. The percentage increase in population over all types of 

 areas was in the neighborhood of 17 percent but ranged from townships with 

 virtually no growth to townships with as high as 25 or more percent growth. The 

 projected increase in population is shown on Table 10.1. 



10.2 Projection of Industrial and Recreational Water Use 



Industrial water use in Keene was projected to increase by 10 percent from 

 1970 to 1980. Industrial and recreational water uses in areas outside Keene were 

 determined by optimization of the model. 



10.3 Other Projection Considerations 



Since the entire Ashuelot River may be classified as B, only B-level constraints 

 were used in the projection. The projections were limited to median and high, 

 August river-flow conditions. Under low-river flow, the basin cannot reach the B 

 classification with 1970 demands and with technology employed in the study. 



Of major importance, these projections were based on current prices. A factor 

 for inflation can be built into the analysis or appUed to results. One of the major 

 problems in using projected prices is the inabihty to project individual prices 

 accurately. Some prices rise at different rates than others. This causes a change in 

 price ratio, and the change in price ratio may be large enough to cause major 

 shifts in resource use. The projections presented here are based on the assumption 

 that current firms will stay in business over the period and that no change in 

 price ratio will occur. 



The assumption of no change in price ratios violates results developed within 

 this study. ImpUcit prices in the recreation sector indicate economic pressures 

 which will result in price-ratio changes. 



See New Hampshire Office of State Planning. Public Water Supply Study, Phase One 

 Report and Public Water Supply Study, Phase Two Report. Concord, New Hampshire: 

 Office of State Planning. 



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