11 



The reasons for the fundamental changes in migration patterns, both 

 nationally and regionally, are not fully understood. Calvin Beale has 

 suggested that rapid growth of new sources of employment in nonmetropoli- 

 tan areas (in trade, services and other nongoods-producing activities), 

 upper income people retiring in nonmetropolitan areas, and an increase in 

 the importance of noneconomic factors in the choice of residential loca- 

 tion may be some basic reasons for the recent net migration turnaround. 

 Recent published research by Beale presents national data supporting the 

 suggestion that nonmetropolitan employment growth depends on nonagricultural 

 industries because persons moving into these areas since 1970 were more 

 likely to be employed in professional services, wholesale and retail trade, 

 finance, insurance, and real estate than persons who lived in nonmetro- 

 politan areas beyond 1970. The longer term residents were more likely 

 employed in agricultural and manufacturing industries. The basic point of 

 this analysis is that nonmetropolitan employment and industrial structure 

 have become increasingly diversified and less concentrated in agriculture. 



Beale' s analysis of the Northeast Region, more broadly defined to 

 include the states of Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia and the District of 

 Columbia, shows that from 1970 to 1976 nonmetropolitan counties adjacent 

 to the boundaries of Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas increased in 

 population more rapidly than nonadjacent nonmetropolitan counties. This 

 is a continuation of the trend during the 1960's and may be viewed as a 

 kind of metropolitan expansion into the adjacent areas. However, from 1970 

 to 1976 nonadjacent nonmetropolitan counties also increased rapidly in 

 population and reported a net inmigration during that period, a reversal of 

 the pattern of net outmigration in this category of counties from 1960 to 

 1970. This means that recent nonmetropolitan expansion in the Northeast 

 Region is not simply the result of metropolitan expansion but also repre- 

 sents a basically new pattern of residential choices (Swanson, 1978). 



To document this observation, Beale demonstrated that the rate of non- 

 metropolitan growth in the early 1970' s was highest in those counties where 

 the largest town was less than 2,500 persons and lowest in counties where 

 the largest town was 25,000 or more persons, a complete reversal of the 

 1960-1970 Regional pattern. In addition, the volume and rate of net 

 inmigration from 1970 to 1976 to nonmetropolitan counties increased with 

 decreasing percentages of persons employed in manufacturing industries. 

 This was a reversal of the net migration pattern from 1960 to 1970. These 

 and other complex changes in nonmetropolitan population growth in the 

 Northeast require additional research before a more complete understanding 

 is achieved. Certainly, however, these changes underscore the fact that 

 the nonmetropolitan Northeast is not simply a microcosm of its metropolitan 

 counterpart. Policies treating it as such underestimate its uniqueness and 

 potential to basically alter the composition of the Northeast population. 



CONCLUDING REMARKS 



While nonmetropolitan areas have experienced population growth, the 

 factors influencing this growth appear to be different for nonmetropolitan 

 counties adjacent and nonadjacent to the boundaries of Standard Metropolitan 

 Statistical Areas (SMSA's). Since 1970, five-eighths of nonmetropolitan 

 growth has been attributed to residential mobility from metropolitan areas 

 into adjacent nonmetropolitan counties (Beale, 1975). To this extent, the 

 population redistribution does not necessarily reflect increments in non- 

 metropolitan opportunity structures because adjacent counties are within 

 commuting distance of the opportunity structure of metropolitan areas. 

 Most observers expect these adjacent nonmetropolitan areas to continue 

 growing but the consequences and implications of this growth are different 



