150 BOARD OF AGRICULTURE. [Pub. Doc. 



the government officials in charge, the cost of fermenting, 

 sorting and baling, without which, of course, the figures 

 of the final sale would have little meaning or value to the 

 grower. 



I ought to say that the crops, so far as I have examined 

 them, are, it seems to me, very fine, and I see no reason 

 why they should not sell for as much, if not more, than the 

 imported Sumatra. Dealers and manufacturers who have 

 seen these crops say the same. But, after all, the real test 

 of opinion is when dealers come and offer good money in 

 exchange for the leaf, and when manufacturers who have 

 worked the leaf and sold the cigars made from them come 

 and ask for more. 



It needs to be said here that no one can sit down with 

 pencil and paper and make profits on growing tobacco. He 

 can figure them and imagine them ; he can .show how a profit 

 would result if a dozen different things went as he assumed 

 they would, but they never do. I shall doubtless be re- 

 ported as saying that it costs the farmer a little over 37 

 cents a pound on his crop to raise it under shade rather than 

 in the open, and that what he gets for it above G2 cents a 

 pound is profit, and if he gets less he loses. But I say 

 nothing of the kind. One year he may make money, sell- 

 ing at 62 cents, the next he may lose, selling at $1.50 or 

 $2 for sound leaf. For instance, we had a squall at Poquo- 

 nock last year, which lasted five or ten minutes, and in that 

 time added a cent and a half a pound to the cost of pro- 

 duction of our crop by the damage it did to the shade. It 

 was the worst squall known there in fifteen years, uprooting 

 trees and blowing down some barns. If there had been 

 heavy hail with it, the thing would very likely have been 

 ruined. 



Now, the man who makes money with a paper and pencil 

 cannot tell whether that will happen next } r ear ; or whether 

 a late freeze will half ruin our seed beds ; or whether heavy 

 hail will break through our shade ; or whether a drought 

 will spoil the quality even of the leaf grown under shade ; 

 or whether we can get, just when we need it, the extra 

 labor for harvest. For these reasons it seems to me foolish 



