the survival of migrants through the system. Much of this information would be obtained from the 

 Smolt Monitoring Program conducted by the fishery agencies and tribes. Juvenile population data 

 would: 1 ) provide annually an indication of the effect of program actions on the size of the juvenile 

 outmigration, especially those dealing with fish production and the survival of juvenile fish through the 

 hydroelectric system; 2) measure the progress of the program in expediting improvement in mainstem 

 passage survival rates (program Section 204(c)); and 3) assess the geographical distribution of 

 production programs within the basin (program Section 204(a)). 



The adult equivalent production would index stock abundance. Progress of the program would 

 be measured within the context of other non-program effects. The measure would be calculated as the 

 estimated adult return to the mouth of the Columbia River corrected for natural ocean mortality and 

 ocean harvest. The latter correction factors could probably be obtained from ongoing marking and 

 monitoring being conducted by the fishery management agencies under the Pacific Salmon Treaty. 

 The adult equivalent production would provide an annual assessment of the overall production from the 

 Columbia system, and, in the course of its calculation, would provide the means to monitor 

 consistency with the Council policy regarding harvest (program Section 2Q4(e)). 



The life cycle analysis would increase our knowledge of the causes behind the trends seen in the 

 previous two indices. A model would be used to organize information, identify and prioritize needed 

 information, and compare alternative methods of achieving goals. As a means of measuring program 

 progress, the model would be used to calculate the stock productivity. 



MEG suggests using the model to determine the change in stock productivity that occurs as a 

 result of program measures and for the program as a whole. In many ways the stock productivity is a 

 more useful expression of stock condition than is stock abundance (e.g., the adult production). Stock 

 abundance might be viewed as the easily observed tip of the iceberg while stock productivity is the 

 more obscure but potentially more important underlying ice. Stock productivity provides insight into 

 the capacity of the population to withstand harvest pressure, mainstem passage mortality rates, and 

 environmental fluctuation while indicating how fast the population might respond to program 

 measures. None of this can be found from simple expressions of stock abundance. 



Genetics monitoring . In addition to measuring the progress of the fish and wildlife program, 

 SMEP is charged with addressing means to assess genetic risks in production and to meaningfully 

 incorporate genetics into production planning (production policy b and Section 206(d) (F)). MEG is 

 responding to this through the System Planning process by providing guidelines for genetic impact 

 assessment and a genetic conservation program. The latter will include measures to monitor genetic 

 changes resulting from production programs and genetic research requirements. 



III. ELEMENTS OF THE MEG RECOMMENDATION 



The process for monitoring and evaluation proposed by MEG consists of collecting, organizing, 

 and retrieving information about the biological system so that progress is followed and our increase in 

 knowledge is maximized. Collection of information would occur through monitoring and research 

 programs developed around an experimental design that seeks to maximize the cost effective 

 collection of data. Organization of this information in a form that maximizes our learning and 

 understanding would occur through the use of a life cycle model . This would summarize our 

 understanding of the logical relationships between the collected data. Retrieval and reporting of the 

 data collected through monitoring and research, and the knowledge that emerges from structuring this 

 information, would occur through an information system that would also serve to coordinate data 

 collection and facilitate communication between data bases. The genetics monitoring program forms 

 an additional component of the SMEP which may not be fully encompassed by the other, more 

 quantitative, aspects of the program. Each of these components will be discussed below. Some of 



