from System Planning, as well as those monitoring programs that are now underway or are being 

 contemplated as part of other aspects of the fish and wildlife program. 



It is also likely that SMEP and the system wide analysis of information proposed here would lead 

 to insights that could affect the direction and prioritization of information needs in these programs or 

 require additional effort outside the present capabilities. Examples of this are the need listed above for 

 a juvenile population estimate at Bonneville Dam and the juvenile survival rate through the hydroelectric 

 system. This need is also recognized by many other agencies and programs in the basin. Although 

 the means to obtain this information are not presently known, the need remains and could spur 

 development of the required techniques. 



2. Life Cycle Model 



Under the monitoring and evaluation scheme proposed here, a model would be used to organize 

 the information collected from existing sources and from future monitoring and research activities into 

 a logical and coherent picture of the life cycle of salmon and steelhead. MEG is proposing to use the 

 System Planning Model as an initial tool to structure the existing data. This model is now being used in 

 System Planning to compare production scenarios and eventually as a technical component of the 

 integration of the subbasin plans into a system plan. For SMEP, the model would be used to compute 

 the stock productivity of projects, subbasins, and ultimately the system. 



The computation of stock productivity would occur at three points during project planning and 

 implementation. First, it would be used to assist in the evaluation of production and management 

 alternatives. This is now being done in System Planning, where the model is used to compare the 

 increase in run size and productivity that can be expected from various alternatives given assumed 

 harvest, passage, and natural survival rates. The model will also provide the technical basis for the 

 system integration of the subbasin plans (Section 206(d) (E)). This will entail a process of balancing the 

 productivity of the various stocks with the prevailing harvest and passage survival rates. 



A second application of the model should be the identification of uncertainties that affect the 

 achievement of goals. During the planning of production or management actions, much of the model 

 input data will consist of assumptions and hypotheses, and the simulations will contain considerable 

 uncertainty. Parameters identified as critically affecting the outcome of plans should be flagged as 

 areas requiring special research or monitoring attention. The importance of these area should be 

 communicated to the research technical work groups, if they fall within the existing research priorities, 

 and to the Council if alternative or additional areas research emphasis are indicated. 



Finally, after implementation of a set of actions, the model would be used in SMEP to compute a 

 measure of progress of the program in doubling the capacity of the basin to produce salmon and 

 steelhead. The simulations made during the planning would be updated over time as research 

 indicates that modifications are warranted in the input data. These simulations would provide a 

 baseline for measurement of progress. After implementation, simulations would continue and 

 incorporate monitoring and research data. Progress of the program would then be measured by 

 comparing these simulations to the baseline simulations. The process proposed here is thus becomes 

 a continuous cycle of updating simulations made during the planning phase, to form a baseline, with 

 real-time monitoring and research data as the plan is implemented. 



3. Coordinated Information System 



A program to monitor and evaluate a system as complex as the Columbia River will necessarily 

 involve the coordination of large amounts of information. To a large degree, the monitoring and 

 evaluation program proposed here can be characterized as a system to collect, organize, and evaluate 

 information collected at all life stages, and to make this information available to decision makers in a 



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