The discussion below sets out the alternatives provided by the Monitoring and Evaluation Group 

 and provides a rough estimate of the initial cost of implementing each alternative. It should be made 

 clear that these cost estimates only cover the cost of organizing existing information into an expression 

 of program progress. They do not include the cost of all existing monitoring programs or related 

 programs such as the coordinated information system. In addition, information beyond that collected 

 now as part of existing monitoring and research efforts is likely to be needed to achieve an acceptable 

 level of precision. The size of the overall effort may depend on the nature of subbasin plans currently 

 being formulated in system planning. For this reason, it is not possible to provide the total cost of a 

 monitoring program at this time. It will need to be reviewed in the future as more defined monitoring 

 programs are proposed. 



QP^'Q^ ^- Measure progress as the change in smolt output from the Columbia River. This would 

 provide an early indication of the effect of the program on increasing smolt production and smolt 

 survival through the hydroelectric system. However, it would not include those parts of the program 

 designed to increase adult survival, nor would it provide a system-wide perspective. In addition, 

 techniques do not presently exist for estimating the size of the smolt outmigration from the Columbia 

 River, or for directly isolating the cause of changes in smolt numbers. Development of these 

 techniques would likely be a long and expensive process. 



An alternative that would address only fish migrating from above Bonneville Dam would be to use 

 existing indices of smolt passage to provide an index of the change in smolt outmigration from year to 

 year (as opposed to an estimate of the actual number). This would involve collecting and processing 

 information now assembled by the Fish Passage Center and others. This is presently being done to 

 some extent, although there is not universal agreement regarding the relationship between the indices 

 and actual population size. The cost of implementing the smolt index as a measure of progress is 

 estimated at about $50,000 annually. 



QP^'Q" ^- Measure progress as the change in the number of adults produced, this approach 

 would include the number of fish returning to the basin as well as those harvested in the ocean. An 

 additional correction would have to be made to account for those fish harvested in the ocean that 

 would have died in any event from natural causes. The adult count is the method implied in the Council 

 doubling goal. However, like the previous option, the numbers of fish observed in any year are the 

 product of many factors. Sorting out the effect of the program or of specific types of program actions 

 would be very difficult. For this reason, it is likely that little knowledge would be gained that could be 

 used to refine the program. 



Above Bonneville Dam, computing the annual adult production would involve the use of adult 

 counts made at the mainstem hydroelectric projects by the Corps of Engineers, as well as estimates of 

 catch made by the fishery management agencies. Below Bonneville, fishery agency estimates of 

 tributary return and catch could be used. Cost of reviewing and compiling this information into an 

 annual index of progress is estimated at $75,000 annually. 



Qp^'°" ^- Compute the change in salmon and steelhead surplus production as an index of 

 program progress. This option would utilize a computer model of the salmon and steelhead life cycle 

 which would incorporate the current understanding of the relationships between variables as well as 

 real-time monitoring and research data. The principal result would be a calculation of the adults that 

 are surplus to spawning needs. This surplus portion is available for harvest or to provide a buffer for 

 unanticipated changes in mainstem mortality or natural fluctuations. As real-time monitoring and 



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