land and stocking at $10 per acre. At the present rate of increase in 

 stmnpage values, red oak, yellow poplar, and Douglas fir will shortly bring 

 remunerative prices. It is probable that cottonwood, red gum, southern 

 white ash, and redwood have a rate of growth that will include them in the 

 list of species which will soon reach stumpage prices covering the cost of 

 growing. There is little room to doubt that with all these species the 

 stumpage will reach a reproduction price long before the timber can be 

 grown. 



Present virgin timber is nearly always of greater age than can be 

 grown with profit hereafter. This old timber usually has a larger percentage 

 of the higher grades than "second-growth" or young timber. Hence, in 

 value, virgin stumpage must be compared, not with the cost of the younger 

 timber, but with that of the older classes. Under present methods of taxa- 

 tion, and to cover a 4 percent investment, virgin timber values should 

 eventually rise to at least the cost of growing saw timber from 12 to 24 

 inches in diameter, say averaging 16 inches, except in cases where cheaper 

 woods or other materials will furnish satisfactory substitutes. 



This entire discussion has assumed an intelligent public conception 

 of the value of forest property and the necessity for its protection from 

 fire. Until such a sentiment crystallizes into efficient measures, rigidly 

 enforced, many forest investments will continue to be hazardous. In some 

 localities conditions are already such that forest investments on a moderate 

 scale are reasonably safe. 



Because of the long investments required, the cost of growing timber 

 becomes unreasonable when high rates of interest are demanded. If private 

 capital is unwilling to engage in it for an income of 4 to 5 percent, then 

 the sooner a large proportion of the permanent timber land of the country 

 comes into possession of the state or national governments, the more 

 hopeful will be the outlook for, future timber supplies. The chief concern 

 of the state and national governments is the public welfare, and, moreover, 

 they can profitably engage in operations at an even lower rate of interest 

 than 4 percent. 



