XII 

 SOME MODERN PROBLEMS 



1. The present period, which may be dated from 1760 in 

 England and from rather a later date in most European countries, 

 has been marked by an unparalleled increase of population. The 

 rate of increase has for some years been slowing down. This 

 outburst of population is sometimes referred to as though there 

 was something mysterious about it. It was, in fact, merely the 

 response to increase in skill, and similarly the declining birth-rate 

 is, at least for the most part, merely the response to the fact that 

 skill is no longer increasing so fast.^ The fact that the upper 

 social classes began to restrict their increase before the lower 

 social classes is partly due to the fact that they are more sensitive 

 to economic requirements. This point is almost always over- 

 looked in discussions of the question of differential fertility, and 

 when forming any judgement on this subject the possible loss in 

 quality has — though it is a very difficult problem — to be balanced 

 against the gain in arriving at an adjustment of quantity. There 

 may be more to be said for Mill's opinion quoted on a previous 

 page than most eugenists would be willing to admit. 



Before we go on to notice some of the many problems that 

 arise, something may be said as to the future. So deeply have 

 men been impressed by this increase that the most pessimistic 

 prophecies have been published as to the fate in store for the 

 human race. Numerous calculations have been made to show 

 that within a certain length of time there will only be standing 

 room. Mr. Knibbs has calculated that, if the rate of increase of 

 the population of the world obtaining in the five years preceding 

 1911 was to be continued, there would in 500 years be 246,114 

 millions. He is appalled by the prospect. ' No artifices of 

 cultivation,' he says, ' nor any possible diminutions of human 

 stature, so as to decrease the necessary quantity of food per 



' As an example of this increase in skill it may be noted that between 1840 

 and 1895 the quantity of product of various crops in America per unit of labour 

 increased fivefold (Quaintance, American Economic Association Pvhlications, 

 3rd Series, vol. v, 1904, p. 21). 



