are four wilderness areas (Bob Marshall, Mission Mountains, Great Bear and Scapegoat), one wilderness 

 study area (Deep Creek North) and one scenic area (Ten Lakes). While not officially designated a 

 wilderness area, the Kootenai National Forest manages the Ten Lakes Scenic Area to preserve its 

 wilderness characteristics. 



The grizzly bears in Glacier National Park (GNP) represent the keystone of the NCDE population in 

 northwest Montana, and cvirrent estimates indicate more than 200 individuals reside in the area. Because 

 of its proximity to Canadian bear populations, large land area, and high proportion of designated 

 wilderness and national park lands, the NCDE offers some of the best long-term prospects of supporting 

 a viable grizzly bear population among the six areas designated as grizzly bear recovery zones in the U.S. 



Grizzly bear distribution in the NCDE has been, and still is, documented through radio-collared animals, 

 female with cubs/young observations, tracks, scats, other sightings, mortalitv locations, and photographic 

 detection methods. As female grizzly bears with cubs are extremely difficult to observe in the NCDE 

 because of dense forest canopies and thick shrub fields, existing minimum counts for the NCDE are likely 

 inadequate and far below actual population size and as a result do not reflect the true status of this 

 grizzlv bear population. Consequently, until now, statistically rigorous grizzly population studies in 

 forested habitat could only be accomplished with radio telemetry. New technology involving DNA 

 identification of hair and scat samples will, however, provide additional information of distribution and 

 population parameters. In the future, population estimates, derived from the 2004 USGS DNA point 

 estimate, will form the base against which trend will be determined. 



Recent advances in genetic technology allow identification of species, sex, and individuals from DNA 

 extracted from bear hair and scats without handling bears. With proper survey design and necessary 

 funding, identification of individuals and sex typing data can be used to determine (1) minimum 

 population size, (2) provide a way to measure population trends for both black and grizzly bears, and (3) 

 genetic diversity of the populations. Now that individual bears can be identified from hair and scats, sign 

 surveys to monitor population trend status will be more powerful. 



In addition to the DNA-based total population estimate, a program to estimate the trend of the NCDE 

 population has been initiated. Trend monitoring will determine the fate and reproductive status of 

 female grizzly bears, allowing biologists to determine if the population is increasing, decreasing, or is 

 stable. A sample of 25 or more adult female grizzly bears will be radio-collared and monitored into the 

 future on an annual basis. More importantly, the sampling scheme will be designed to minimize bias of 

 the radioed animals towards any one area, and balance bear density with the radioed sample across the 

 area. For example, if 50% of the bears reside outside Glacier National Park, then 50% of all bears collared 

 in the study will be from locations outside the park. This will provide a calculation of population trend 

 with confidence intervals across differing land use patterns. 



The DNA-based total population estimate in combination with trend estimates will provide the necessary 

 critical information on the NCDE population to determine how this population is performing and to 

 understand how, or if, management efforts are meeting the needs of this population. The population 

 trend monitoring effort will continue every year to gain the data needed to update trend information. 

 This is the same population trend monitoring system that is currently in place in the Yellowstone 

 ecosystem. Mortality levels and relationship to recovery criteria presented in the 1993 Grizzly Bear 

 Recovery Plan are presented in Tables 4 and 5. 



25 



