1. Population size monitoring - assessing the status of the grizzly bear population will be critical to 

 gauging recovery efforts. Although direct monitoring of the total number of bears is not feasible, 

 results from the NCDE DNA study will provide an accurate assessment and estimate of the grizzly 

 bear population for 2004. After such time, if adequate funding is not available, density estimates may 

 be used as indices to gauge populaHon change relative to the 2004 estimate. 



2. Trend monitoring - the benchmark estimate of population size through DNA techniques will not be 

 the only population index required to judge recovery under the ESA. Estimates of population trend 

 using critical population parameters can yield the rate of change in a population and proximate 

 causes for the change. FWP has already initiated a population trend program that focuses on 

 determining the fate and reproductive status of female grizzly bears in the NCDE. The goal of the 

 program is to maintain a representative sample of 25 or more female grizzly bears fitted with radio 

 telemetry collars that are well distributed throughout the ecosystem. Objectives include (i) 

 monitoring survival and reproductive rates of females to determine population trend (ii) monitoring 

 distribution of bears inside and outside recovery zones (iii) collecting and providing information on 

 management-orientated aspects of grizzly bear ecology (iv) summarizing conflict management 

 activiHes to help managers interpret population size and trend indicators. 



In addition to data from the 25 or more collared females, the following will also be gathered as part of 

 the trend monitoring program: 



i. Female-young monitoring - while difficult to observe in western Montana, sighting records 

 of unduplicated females with cubs will be collected and organized annually. 



ii. Grizzly bear mortality - mortalities will be investigated and cause of death determined from 

 field investigations and through forensic work. DNA samples will be collected from all dead 

 bears. Both known and probable mortalities will be used to set mortality thresholds. 



iii. Conflict management - conflict management will be summarized annually and trends used 

 by managers to help interpret population size and trend indicators. 



3. Health assessment - disease surveillance will be conducted as part of an ongoing effort to determine 

 the health status of the grizzly bear population. This will include analysis of blood and fecal samples 

 as well as parasite prevalence. 



Population Management Guidelines 



As stated previously, we recognize that no one factor can provide all information necessary to assess 

 population size and trend. Ultimately any assessments will result in some level of estimation and 

 extrapolation for management purposes. This is the same approach FWP has used successfully for many 

 other species of wildlife. To assure that our assessments of population size and trend are adequate, we 

 will review the following in making our judgments. 



1. Laws and regulations may have major influences on the bear population and FWP will evaluate 



both state and federal changes. For example, revised or updated travel and forest plans have the 

 potential to affect bear conservation as road closure policies will influence the number of grizzly 

 bears susceptible to mortality. 



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