PROVING THE RULE 



event. They get credit for being aware, 

 not merely of impending change, but of 

 stable conditions which the change will 

 introduce. Perhaps experience tells them 

 that a certain kind of weather, when it 

 arrives, will tend to persist; however this 

 may be, their actions point to what lies 

 some distance ahead, and are accepted as 

 guides by farmer and fisherman. Thu^, 

 the high and early flights of mosquito- 

 hawks are associated with 'set-fair', while 

 crows, swallows, ducks and sea-fowl de- 

 mean themselves in distinctive unmistak- 

 able ways when a bout of good weather, or 

 bad, is on the road. Two things are to be 

 said : there is no evidence of knowledge 

 extending beyond the next atmospheric 

 move; man is able to achieve as reliable 

 prognostics by reasoning upon the facts. 



Were it possible to extend the range of 

 forecasts, and perhaps to determine the 

 character of a whole season by the behav- 

 iour of those creatures to whom heat, cold, 

 wind and rain are matters of profoundest 

 concern, it is sure that all knowledge on 

 this head would long ago have been as- 

 sembled and co-ordinated. And this in 

 fact has been attempted. Out of respect 

 for the deep and universal faith inprophe- 

 127 



