PROVING THE RULE 



reach across time and space. Shrewd 

 guesses there have been as to the ultimate 

 causes, and the clue which would raise long- 

 range predictions nearly to the level of ac- 

 curacy of the shorter ones now serving us 

 so well seems nearly within grasp. 



People who assert: — 'we have had so 

 much rain that it w411 surely be fine to- 

 morrow', believe that they have the law of 

 average on their side, but in weather or 

 cards it is only averages over a long period 

 upon which we can rely. There is not the 

 least assurance that a very bad will be fol- 

 lowed by a very good hand, or a foul day 

 by a fair one. In cards, the chances against 

 any one of all possible deals are ever alike; 

 in weather, another factor turns the odds 

 against the popular view, and supplies us 

 with a rule of thumb that goes a little way 

 towards restoring the credit of the ground- 

 hog as weather-prophet. 



When the cold sunshine of Candlemas 

 day outlines his shadow upon the snow, 

 anticyclonic conditions nearly always pre- 

 vail, and, prevailing, are likely to continue. 

 Should the sky be overcast it is equally 

 probable, though in neither case certain, 

 that the immense refrigerator which regu- 

 lates our winter temnerature is dissipated, 

 131 



