Investment in Agricultural Research and Extension: A Survey 31 



significantly related to agricultural researcher productivity. In- 

 deed, the implications of each of the regressions is that the 

 knowledge represented by research in plant physiology is a major 

 contributor to the output of agricultural scientific effort. An in- 

 crease in agricultural scientific manpower (or expenditures) of 10 

 percent is associated with an increase in agricultural scientific 

 publications of only 4 percent. If that increase in agricultural 

 scientific manpower is accompanied by a 10 percent increase in 

 the production of related scientific knowledge, agricultural scien- 

 tific output will increase by roughly 9 percent. 



We should admit that our dependent variable does not measure 

 all of the scientific output of the agricultural scientists. Publica- 

 tions related to horticultural crop production, for example, are 

 only partially included. In addition, some of the expenditures in 

 agricultural research systems support plant physiology research. 

 These biases are not so serious, however, as to alter the major im- 

 plications of the regressions. A theoretical development of the 

 implications for productivity of agriculturally related scientific 

 research is presented in chapter 8. 



Plant physiology research is probably serving as a proxy for a 

 broader set of scientific activities. It may be serving as an index of 

 researcher quality, in that it is related to the quality of graduate 

 study. It is also measuring a flow of relevant scientific discoveries 

 that alter the conditions for real productivity by agricultural 

 scientists. The findings provide support for the proposition that it 

 is possible to develop productive research systems in countries 

 that do not have advanced socioeconomic characteristics. 



The Determinants of Research Investment 



As we have noted, most agricultural research activity is under- 

 taken by the public sector. Consequently, standard private sector 

 investment models cannot be relied upon to provide a complete 

 specification of the determinants of investment behavior. As later 

 chapters will show, it does not appear that the levels of research 

 investment in most countries are optimal. The overwhelming evi- 

 dence is that countries underinvest in research. We do not pro- 

 pose to develop a public sector optimization model at this point. 



