1 



Food Production: 

 Problems and Prospects 



The capacity to produce food is an important feature of the histo- 

 ry of most nations. Developed countries have at times experi- 

 enced excess capacity and have enjoyed the benefits of relatively 

 low food prices. Food scarcity and high food price episodes have 

 generally been of short duration in modern times. The developing 

 countries, on the other hand, have, throughout recent history, 

 frequently been subject to serious food shortages. As the develop- 

 ing countries move into an era of high rates of population growth, 

 the prospect for expansion of food-producing capacity attains 

 heightened importance. 



A number of years ago, the dramatic advances in wheat and 

 rice production based on high-yielding varieties developed in the 

 early 1960s created a climate of optimism regarding the prospects 

 for further advances. Today that optimism has disappeared. The 

 "Green Revolution" has failed to live up to its billing, and 

 doomsday models are in fashion. It will therefore be useful to 

 review these developments from a wider perspective. 



This volume reports the findings of a number of empirical stud- 

 ies of the capability of nations to produce food. Its primary focus 

 is on the developing countries. Our motivation for conducting 

 these studies has been to improve our understanding of the pro- 

 cess of productivity change. The basic hypothesis of this study is 

 discovery and diffusion of agricultural technology is subject to 

 economic analysis. It is not a costless process. Real and scarce 

 resources are required for the realization of improved production 

 techniques. It is also not fundamentally a mysterious process, 

 subject to unpredictable scientific breakthroughs. We have found 



The discussion in this chapter is based partly on Kislev (1973a, b). 



