86 Agricultural Research and Product iviiy 



Note: Poor countries: those with per capita GNP in 1961 less than $400 (marked a 

 in table 5.2). 



for the Netherlands or the comparatively low-ranking one (32) of 

 Norway. But overall, the findings of table 5.2 are reasonable. The 

 differences in productivity revealed in the table are huge. From 

 the same collection of inputs, India, for example, will receive only 

 38 percent of Germany's output and 20 percent of the output 

 achieved by Japan. 



From the preceding analysis an important question arises: 

 whether the gap in productivity is closing over time. Two com- 

 parisons are presented in table 5.3. In the first, the group of the 

 twenty highest countries in table 5.2 is compared to the group of 

 the sixteen lowest. The average intercepts are 101 and 53 for the 

 first and second groups, respectively. The average time-trends of 

 technology are 1.3 percent for the higher group and 0.9 percent 

 for the lower. The gap between these two groups will thus 

 increase over time. 



The same conclusion is reached by comparing the twenty 

 "rich" countries (with 1961 per capita GNP in excess of $400) 

 with the sixteen poor countries of the sample. In ten years, if the 

 rich start at ninety-four, their average index of productivity, and 

 proceed at 1.5 percent per annum, and the poor start at sixty-five 

 and proceed at .7 percent per annum, the rich will be at 109 and 

 the poor at 70. The rich will start from a position in which their 

 productivity level is 1 .45 (= 94/65) times of that of the poor coun- 

 tries; after ten years, their productivity level will be 1.55 times 

 higher than that of the poor countries. 



