The Case of India 99 



The Determinants of Productivity Change 



This section turns to a statistical analysis of the effect of agricul- 

 tural research on productivity in India. The following functional 

 relation serves as a framework for the analysis. 



P = /(research, extension, weather, time, region) (6.1) 



Pstands for the state productivity level and research is introduced 

 with an eight-year distributed lag.^ This formulation is approxi- 

 mately equivalent to the procedures followed in chapters 3, 4, and 

 5. The productivity index nets out the contributions of other con- 

 ventionally measured inputs. We are thus analyzing changes in 

 production, controlling for these factors. 



Productivity will be influenced by research conducted outside 

 each state, as in the earlier analyses of international productivity 

 changes.^ The Papadakis geoclimate regions (see figure 6.1) were 

 utilized in specifying regional research. An exponential borrow- 

 ing function similar to that suggested for wheat and maize in 

 chapter 4 was specified as 



B = R[\ -cee-oi-^] (6.2) 



where S is the stock of research findings produced in the state and 

 R is the stock of research findings produced outside the state but 

 in the same geoclimate region. 



The measure of extension effort is based on the maturity of the 

 extension program in the state. The extension program in each 

 community development block has been developed through 

 three stages. It generally requires ten years or so before a district 

 program achieves stage 3 development. The extension variable is 

 calculated as a weighted-average stage-level by state, by year. The 

 weights are .25 for stage 1 districts, .75 for stage 2 districts, and 1.0 

 for the advanced stage 3 districts. 



A drought year's dummy variable was included to control for 

 some of the weather variation. Dummy variables for time period 

 and for the northwest region were designed to control for the ex- 

 ogenous effects of the Green Revolution technology. 



7. See notes lo table 6.5 for the definition of the variables. 



8. See chapter 4 for the discussion ol the borrowing of knowledge in an interna- 

 tional context. 



