Introduction 3 



When the changes in the physical yield of the crops 

 are shown to be dependent upon changes in the weather, 

 the next stage in the investigation is to connect the 

 yield with its value, and this brings one face to face 

 with another unsolved problem in theoretical economics. 

 The most recent phase of economic theory opens with a 

 description of the "law of demand," which from the 

 time of Cournot, Dupuit, and Gossen has been assumed 

 in all theoretical discussions, but there has been no 

 method for finding the statistical equation to the law. 

 It will be necessary to overcome the difficulties of this 

 problem before a solution can be offered of the more 

 fundamental inquiry as to the law and cause of cycles in 

 economic phenomena. 



When the physical yield of the crops has, on the one 

 hand, been related to the cycles of the weather and, on 

 the other, to the prices of the respective crops, it will 

 then be possible to take the final step and to show how 

 the cycles in the physical yield of the crops produce the 

 cycles in the activity of industry and the cycles of 

 general prices, and how, finally, the law of the cycles of 

 the crops is the law of Economic Cycles. 



