The Mechanism of Cycles 117 



very fortunately there are two series that overlap in the 

 middle of the period, so that it is possible to construct a 

 series covering the whole term of years. The two series of 

 index numbers in question are the Falkner index for "all 

 articles" extending from 1870 to 1890, and the index of 

 the Bureau of Labor for "all commodities" extending 

 from 1890 to 1911. Since these two have the year 1890 

 in common it is possible, by applying the simple rule of 

 proportion, to reduce the Falkner series to the base of 

 the series published by the Bureau of Labor. The two 

 original series and the continuous series are given in 

 Table VI of the Appendix to this chapter. 



The test of the theory that the cause and law of 

 economic cycles are the cyclical movements of the 

 yield per acre of the crops will be given in answer to two 

 questions: First, are the deviations of the indices of 

 general prices from their general cyclical movement 

 correlated with the deviations of the indices of the yield 

 per acre of the crops from their general cyclical move- 

 ment? Secondly, are the cycles of prices and the cycles 

 of crops correlated? The answers to these two questions 

 are the substance of the following paragraphs. 



In Tables III and VI of the Appendix to this chapter 

 are given the indices of the yield per acre of the crops 

 and the indices of general prices. The Tables like- 

 wise contain the smoothed indices and the deviations of 

 the actual indices from the smoothed indices. The 

 smoothed series were obtained in the manner that was 

 described when the relation between the yield of the 

 crops and the production of pig-iron was being treated. 



