2IO TIMBER VALUATION 



regions. For example, the export of lumber from America to 

 Europe in any considerable quantity has all occurred during this 

 period and the center of production has moved from the north- 

 eastern states to the southeastern pine region and is now about to 

 jump across the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific northwest. 



Substitution has also been a factor which might have affected 

 seriously the demand for wood and been reflected in lower stump- 

 age prices. The consumption of cement, for example, has in- 

 creased from II million barrels in 1892 to 90 miUion barrels in 

 1913 with a corresponding decrease in the cost per barrel. Coal 

 and steel have Hkewise taken the place of wood in many ways. 

 Thelen estimated in 191 7 that " approximately 70 per cent of the 

 present cut of lumber goes into forms of use whose demands 

 appear to be decreasing." The plain fact is that substitution 

 will undoubtedly go much farther. The crest of lumber pro- 

 duction is undoubtedly behind us. There has been a steady 

 decrease in the amount of lumber sawn since 1909. But the 

 important point is not that we are using less wood but that we 

 have been using it lavishly. Our consumption per capita was 

 estimated in 1900 to be approximately six times that of Germany, 

 seven times that of France and 16 times that of Great Britain. 

 We have not only used wood " from the cradle to the coffin " but 

 wallowed in it en route. 



This does not, however, mean that wood will in time be replaced 

 either in whole or to any considerable extent. It has too many 

 valuable quahties to be entirely superseded. It is Hght, strong, 

 easily worked, durable, a non-conductor of heat and electricity 

 and best of all relatively cheap even assuming that prices will 

 reach throughout the world the level attained in the European 

 countries which do not grow enough for their own use. As com- 

 pared with a piece of iron of the same weight a stick of yellow pine 

 is six times stronger and very much cheaper. So it is safe to 

 assume that wood will always be in great demand for a very 

 large number of uses. 



But its value in construction and manufacture is not the main 

 reason for predicting advancing values for wood. The decreasing 

 supply is the controlUng factor. This fact is one difficult for 



