92 THE AGRICULTURAL CLUB. 



excess of males introduced by excessive agricultural development 

 clearly increases the force of the economic argument against such 

 development. 



Having thus dealt with the " social argument," Mr. 

 Lennard dealt with what may be termed the " maximum 

 production " argument, and observed that the problem 

 of national defence in relation to agricultural development 

 is not so simple as is often assumed. The popular view 

 is that the submarine having revolutionised the naval 

 position and added enormously to the risk of our dependence 

 on overseas food supplies (which in any future war may be 

 expected to be jeopardised in a still greater degree by the 

 development of the new maritime engine of warfare), it 

 follows that, however uneconomic it may be, the defence of 

 the nation demands that its reliance on imported supplies 

 should be reduced to the lowest possible limits. In Mr. 

 Lennard 's words, " many people assume, as if it were a 

 self-evident truth, that the proper way of meeting the 

 submarine peril is to make the country, if possible, self- 

 sufficing, at least so far as wheat is concerned." He main- 

 tained, however, that these contentions are more than 

 doubtful : 



In the first place, it must once more be emphasised that 

 the development of Agriculture is inimical to the growth of 

 merchant shipping. The shipping of this country is not main- 

 tained by sentiment : it has grown in the past, and will grow 

 in the future, out of the needs of our overseas trade. The 

 volume of merchant shipping will in the long run correspond 

 to the volume of overseas trade, and if the country becomes 

 less dependent upon supplies from abroad it will need and it 

 will possess less mercantile tonnage. 



Secondly, it is all-important to notice that the submarine 

 danger is not confined to the matter of imported food. In the 

 last four years we have learnt that war creates a tremendous 

 need for the overseas transport of troops and horses and all 

 kinds of military stores. For this transport it is essential to 

 have a large reserve of merchant shipping. Moreover, for the 

 defence of these transport activities against submarine attack, 

 you need a Navy which is adaptable, and capable of emergency 

 expansion and that means a Navy which can draw for war 

 purposes upon the skilled seamanship of a large mercantile 

 marine and can commandeer all sorts of commercial vessels and 



