1896.] ESSAYS. 57 



friction witli the atmosphere through which they pass. One-half of 

 the total body of air is probably within two or three miles of the 

 surface. 



The existeuce of the warm belt around the equator produces circu- 

 lation. Upon this fact the phenomena of the weather chiefly depend. 

 When a body moves from the poles to the equator it has a tendency 

 to be deflected to the right, aud when it has passed the equator it 

 moves to the left. 



'J'he terms cyclone and tornado are often confused. The tornado 

 is small in comparison and local in its field of operations, extending 

 over a strip eight or ten miles wide, whereas the cyclone may have a 

 diameter of five hundred or one thousand miles. By these we can 

 ascertain the storm centre. 



The weather bureau gets a higher credit for forecasting than it 

 really deserves. When it claims a percentage of eighty or ninety in 

 its verifications the facts are not fully stated. Changeable as the 

 weather is, it often remains the same for a week at a time. Califor- 

 nia has but two great changes in the year, and the officers there get a 

 percentage of ninety-five. 



If you want to be called weather-wise predict that the weather will 

 be the same to-morrow that it is to-day. If sure there are to be 

 changes you will often hit it wrong, but if the rule is faithfully fol- 

 lowed the predictions will prove true oftener than not. In forecast- 

 ing there is quite an element of guessing. 



It is an unfortunate fact that most of the observations are made in 

 cities and towns. In large cities the smoke and hot air issuing from 

 the tall chimneys heat the atmosphere in the immediate locality, and 

 the department gets false data to work from. There have been 

 propositions to build towers or to send up balloons to secure more 

 accurate observations. 



Among the things we don't know about the weather is how to make 

 long forecasts. Efforts are now being made to get forecasts thirty 

 hours ahead. Some people think the department ought to tell what 

 the weather is to be for a month to come. 



Weather proverbs have come down from the conditions of objects 

 and the actions of animals. One proverb reads: "Do business with 

 men when the wind is in the north." It is claimed that men are then 

 in a better humor. When cats sneeze it is said to be a sign of rain. 

 When cats are basking in the sun in February they will go to the 

 stove in March, runs another proverb. Cats snoring is said to be a 

 sign of rain. 



