FALLACIES OF OBSERVATION. 389 



and evidence, to many classes of impostors : to quack 

 doctors, and fortune-tellers in all ages ; to the " cun- 

 ning man" of modern times, and the oracles of old. 

 Few have considered the extent to which this fallacy 

 operates in practice, even in the teeth of the most 

 palpable negative evidence. A striking example of it 

 is the faith which the uneducated portion of the agri- 

 cultural classes, in this and other countries, continue 

 to repose in the prophecies as to weather supplied by 

 almanac makers : although every season affords to 

 them numerous cases of completely erroneous predic- 

 tion ; but as every season also furnishes some cases in 

 which the prediction is verified, this is enough to keep 

 up the credit of the prophet, with people who do not 

 reflect on the number of instances requisite for what 

 we have called, in our inductive terminology, the 

 Elimination of Chance ; since a certain number of 

 casual coincidences not only may but will happen, 

 between any two unconnected events. 



Coleridge, in one of the essays in the Friend , has 

 very happily illustrated the matter we are now con- 

 sidering, in discussing the origin of a proverb, " which, 

 differently worded, is to be found in all the languages 

 of Europe/' viz., " Fortune favours fools." This 

 proverb, says he, " admits of various explanations. 

 It may arise from pity, and the soothing persua- 

 sion that Providence is eminently watchful over the 

 helpless, and extends an especial care to those whc 

 are not capable of caring for themselves. So used, it 

 breathes the same feeling as * God tempers the wind 

 to the shorn lamb/ or the more sportive adage, that 

 ' the fairies take care of children arid tipsy folk.' ' 

 So far, the notion partakes of the character of a fal- 

 lacy of Generalization. But he continues, " The per- 

 suasion itself, in addition to the general religious 



