THE CHEMICAL METHOD. 539 



application from a single unanalyzed instance, or arbi- 

 trarily refer an effect to some one among its antece- 

 dents, without any process of elimination or comparison 

 of instances. It is a rule both of justice and of good 

 sense to grapple not with the absurd est, but with the 

 most reasonable form of a wrong opinion. We shall 

 suppose our inquirer acquainted with the true condi- 

 tions of experimental investigation, and competent in 

 point of acquirements for realising them, if they can 

 be realised in any case of the kind. He shall know 

 as much of the facts of history as mere erudition 

 can teach as much as can be proved by testimony, 

 without the assistance of any theory; and if those 

 mere facts, properly collated, can fulfil the condi- 

 tions of a real induction, he shall be qualified for the 

 task. 



But, that no such attempt can have the smallest 

 chance of success, has been abundantly shown in the 

 tenth chapter of the Third Book*. We there exa- 

 mined whether effects which depend upon a complica- 

 tion of causes, can be made the subjects of a true 

 induction by observation and experiment ; and con- 

 cluded, on the most convincing grounds, that they 

 cannot. Since, of all effects, none depend upon so 

 great a complication of causes as social phenomena, 

 we might leave our case to rest in safety upon that 

 previous showing. But a logical principle, as yet so 

 little familiar to the ordinary run of thinkers, requires 

 to be insisted upon more than once, in order to make 

 the due impression; and the present being the case 

 which of all others exemplifies it the most strongly, 

 there will be advantage in restating the grounds of 



Supra, vol. i., pp. 524533. 



