THE EEGULATION OF NUMBEES 303 



the development of its internal food supply beyond a point long 

 ago reached, the surplus population which rapidly accumulates 

 within it is forced from time to time to seek its sustenance else- 

 where.' ^ Let us consider this theory for a moment. To begin 

 with, so far as relatively to the civilizations of the valleys of the 

 Nile and of the Euphrates disease was rare and the death-rate 

 on that account low, so far the position in Arabia merely approxi- 

 mated to that normal among primitive races. Therefore the 

 healthy conditions taken by themselves do not necessarily form 

 an incentive to migration. The remainder of the argument rests 

 upon an over-estimate of the relief afforded either by increased 

 skill or by migration. It is implied by Mr. Hogarth that, could 

 additional skill have been applied to the increase of food, the 

 ' surplus population ' would have been absorbed ; but that it 

 was not so absorbed and found relief in migration. The calcula- 

 tions already given show how illusory is the idea that relief can 

 be thus afforded. In such arguments the strength of human 

 fecundity is always under-estimated. Further the theory assumes 

 a condition of things within Arabia which is very difficult to 

 understand. The Chaldean migration took place about 800 b. c, 

 the third or Aramean, about 1500 b. c, the second or Canaanite, 

 about 2500 b. c, and we may add a fifth or Islamic in the seventh 

 century a.d. The shortest interval between these movements is 

 800 years. We are asked to suppose that for several hundred 

 years there was an increase of population over and above that 

 which could properly be supported ; for evidently it is not 

 supposed that the increases occurred only shortly before the 

 migrations. Now we know that abortion and infanticide were 

 practised regularly in Arabia. The increase therefore must have 

 been small compared with the possible increase, and yet these 

 methods were not according to the theory effective in producing 

 that position which it must be the object of every vigorous society 

 to attain. A very small increase in the degree to which these 

 practices were performed would have brought about this result, 

 and is it not far more reasonable to suppose that an approximation 

 to this desirable position was normally attained rather than to 

 suppose that there was a chronic failure the results of which 

 could only have been socially disastrous ? 



There are two other considerations which may be adduced in 

 ' Hogarth, Ancient East, p. 78. 



