MODEEN PROBLEMS 309 



person, can possibly relieve the gravity of the situation. In no 

 case can the increase of 1 per cent, per annum be maintained for 

 five centuries.' ^ This pessimism is baseless ; he appears to regard 

 increase as something inevitable that cannot be stopped — forget- 

 ting that throughout the greater part of human history numbers 

 have been for all practical purposes stationary, and that increase 

 only exceptionally outruns economic requirements .^ There is no 

 room, it is true, for mere complacency. Though the desirable 

 density may as a rule result from economic pressure without 

 conscious effort, it does not follow that it would not be better 

 if adjustment was consciously brought about. And it may be 

 that if and when men begin consciously to adjust numbers, they 

 may have to take some criterion other than the economic into 

 ccount. To this point we may now turn. 



2. So far we have proceeded on the assumption that the only 

 criterion was the economic criterion — that the only test whereby 

 the desirable number might be ascertained was the test founded 

 on the average income per head. There does not seem to be any 

 reason for supposing that there is any limit to the increase of 

 skill in the production of food, and that therefore there is any 

 limit to the desirable number so long as the criterion remains 

 economic. This suggests that at some point mankind will have 

 to introduce another method of estimating what density is 

 desirable, as it is clear that the economic advantages of increase 

 somewhere come into conflict with other ideals as to desirable 

 social conditions. In other words, at some point a larger income 

 would not be worth having if it necessitated too large a population. 



It would require a lengthy discussion of many points and the 

 weighing up of many factors before it would be possible to come 

 to any definite conclusion on this subject. It may be observed 

 that there are those who with some apparent reason doubt 

 whether, taking the broadest view of human welfare, a denser 

 population than that now existing in Belgium can be thought 

 desirable. It also seems reasonable to hold that our great cities, 

 and in particular London, have passed the limit that allows of 



> Knibbs, Scientia, vol. xii, p. 495. 



^ Mr. J. A. Hobaon's opinion, which is in conformity with that of the great 

 majority of economists, may be noted : ' there is ', he says, ' no evidence that 

 the world's population is outnmning the natural resources ; but on the contrary 

 the presumption is that for their fuller utilization a larger population is necessary 

 and thereby could be maintained with a higher standard of living (The Declining 

 Birth-rate, p. 75). 



