You will notice that the average October 15th price for the first period 

 (1924-1949) was $2.17 and that the average price for the second period, was 

 $2.46. You will also notice that the increase in price during the period from 

 October 15th to March 15th was 45 cents in the first period and 27 cents in the 

 later period. 



You will also notice that in the period between 1949 and 1958, the price 

 jumped about 25 cents by November 1st and then sagged to only 4 cents over the 

 starting price by January 1st. It then rose gradually to the equal of the 

 November price in March. The average of those who sold in late October was 

 about the same as the average of those who sold in March. This price trend may 

 have been due to a desire to hold too many apples for the spring market which 

 created an artificial shortage in late October. Much of the spring rise, if any, 

 in this period was due to the rise in price of a relatively small percentage of 

 firm apples. The tendency to hold apples, together with the inescapable ripening 

 of apples, apparently resulted in a market considerably influenced by soft apples. 

 The price of apples on the ripe side, shows the reverse trend, from that indicated 

 for firm apples, from the middle of January on. 



In order to visualize the variability of the markets, each of the years 

 from 1949 through 1958, the start of 1959 and the average of the ten-year period 

 is charted on an accompanying page. Only the change in price is used. All years 

 were started equal on October 15th and this point is used for the base line. 

 Any change in price, up or down, from October 15th is noted by a vertical bar, 

 above or below the base line. 



The accompanying charts show two years of rising price, one year of falling 

 price and seven years of variable price. The period is characterized by the 

 holding of too many, too late and too soft for the desired increase in price as 

 the season advanced. 



You will notice that there is little of a pattern of price behavior in this 

 most recent of ten years. The average shows a sag in the middle that should be 

 of concern. The average shows little difference in price between fall and spring. 



October 15th Price 

 Mcintosh U.S. Fancy 2%" up, Massachusetts 



