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APPLE MOVEMENT TO JANUARY 1. 1961 



A new set of percentages for gauging out of storage movement of Mcintosh 

 apples became a necessity this year. In 1957 only 11 per cent of the total 

 stored supply was in C.A. storages. In 1958 and 1959, 28 per cent of the stored 

 crop was in C.A. storages. Forty per cent of the short crop of 1960 was placed 

 in these late storage rooms. 



The Massachusetts standard storages held 701,000 bushels of Mcintosh on 

 October 15, 1960 and the C.A. storages held 473,000 bushels. With a possible 

 movement of one-half of the standard storage apples by Christmas this meant 

 that about 820,000 bushels, or 70 per cent of the total, v/ould remain to be sold 

 after New Year's. An analysis of this situation in terms of previous years 

 revealed the prospect of a late-heavy selling season. A new set of out of 

 storage percentages based upon a thirty-four week selling season instead of the 

 old twenty-two week season was required to evaluate realistically the fall move- 

 ment of apples. The Marketing Committee of the Massachusetts Fruit Growers' 

 Association sent a letter to all members on November 16, 1960, calling attention 

 to the unusual situation. 



The out of storage percentages used between 1948 and 1959 together with the 

 figures available from three years of C.A. selling were used to develop a new 

 set of percentages. Starting on November 1, the new percentages are 6, 8, 10, 

 10, 8, 7, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Each percentage is for the previous 

 two week period. These percentages work out to indicate a movement of 34 per 

 cent of the total stored crop by December 15, another 33 per cent by March 1, and 

 the remaining 33 per cent by July 1. The selling record of recent years gives 

 support to this balance of movement between fall, winter and spring as a basis 

 for gauging movement with the desirability of a firm and gradually rising price 

 in mind. 



The new out of storage percentage figures are the basis for the new "base 

 line" on the accompanying out of storage movement chart. The base line is 

 drawn through the percentage remaining in storage as this is the quantity given 

 serious consideration at each step in the selling season. 



The dotted line superimposed on the solid black base line indicates the 

 actual percentage movement of the 1960-61 season by two week periods. The 

 dotted line indicates a faster than base line movement by November 15 and a 

 slowing of the movement during December. 



The weekly movement of apples out of storages needed to secure the indicated 

 base line percentage is shoifli in the accompanying chart by the grey background 

 area. Actual movement for the 1960-61 storage crop to January 1 is indicated by 

 the vertical bars for each two week period. These vertical bars show the faster 

 movement in the first two weeks of November and the slower movement in the other 

 periods. 



The chart may be used to gauge movement against a standard line as an aid 

 in developing selling strategy. Desirable variations from the base line may 



