APPLE bL\RKETING OUTLOOK 



The apple marketing situation is discussed by Fred Perkins, Department 

 of Agricultural Economics and Marketing, Rutgers, New Brunswick, New Jersey 

 in Economics Information Report No. 2. Below is his analysis of the factors 

 that affect the future of the apple industry. 



" Production Trends 



During the recent five year period 1959-1963, the U.S. apple 

 crop amounted to 126,8 million bushels, 108,5 million, 126,7 million, 

 125,4 million, and 122.8 million, for an average annual crop of 122.1 

 million bushels. 



Statistics show that the production trend for most major pro- 

 ducing areas in the U.S. is upward, indicating increases of more than 

 10 million bushels can be expected to provide average national crops 

 of from 130 to 135 million bushels by 1966, There is also the further 

 possibility that if all producing areas in the U.S. should have favor- 

 able weather conditions in a given year, a bumper national crop of 

 some 147 million bushels might result. 



Varietal Planting s 



Nationally, the variety to increase most heavily in the future 

 is Red Delicious, As a percentage of total production, slight increases 

 will also occur for Winesap, Rome and Golden Delicious; while decreases 

 will occur for the Mcintosh, Staymen and York varieties. 



Population Estimates 



The U.S. population and the U.S. production of apples are both 

 expected to increase a total of 8.5 per cent over the next five years 

 for an annual increase of about 1.7 per cent. This means that apple 

 consumption must continue at its present level if the industry is to 

 maintain its position over the next five years. On the brighter side, 

 the statistics show that the composition of the population will be 

 such in five years that 22 per cent of the people in the U.S. will be 

 under 10 years of age and 49 per cent will be under 25 years old. 

 Therefore, the increase in population and shifts in its age classifi- 

 cations may help the apple industry - if more younger people are en- 

 couraged to eat and enjoy apples. 



Consumer Patterns 



In the early '20's, the total annual consumption of apples 

 averaged more than 50 pounds per person, but over the years it has 

 decreased appreciably. For the period 1941-50, total apple consump- 

 tion averaged 30 pounds per person, compared to 28 pounds for the 

 last 10-year period, 1951-60. 



During this period, fresh sales of apples decreased an average 

 of four pounds per person; canned sales increased two pounds, while 

 other processing uses remained relatively unchanged. 



