-li- 



on the positive side, expected output still is some 4 percent 

 below that of 1976, and crops in the key European producers -- 

 France and Italy -- are off 4 percent and 19 percent, respectively, 

 from 2 years ago. Italy's crop, in fact, is some 5 percent below 

 the small outturn of 1977. 



LATIN AMERICA (including the Caribbean and Mexico) should con- 

 tinue its gradual growth as a market for U.S. apples. Exports there 

 in 1978/79 are forecast at 1.9 million to 2.0 million cartons, 

 against 1.5 million last year. Shippers will probably at least equal 

 last year's showing in Mexico and Venezuela -- which together take 

 about half of all U.S. exports to the region -- and make further 

 gains in Central America, the Caribbean, Colombia, and possibly 

 Brazil . 



In contrast to diminishing sales opportunities a few years ago, 

 when France was encroaching on many traditional U.S. markets, Latin 

 America recently has become an attractive outlet. U.S. shipments 

 there last year rose 12 percent over the 1976/77 level. 



In the FAR EAST AND PACIFIC -- a recent growth market that did 

 not, however, participate in last year's advance -- sales are 

 expected to exceed the 1.4 million cartons in 1977/78. A large crop 

 in the U.S. Pacific Northwest means plentiful export supplies. 



Hong Kong should continue to be a high-volume market, with any 

 plus conditioned in part on currency relationships -- the Hong Kong 

 dollar has been slightly weaker so far this year. Taiwan, Malaysia, 

 and Singapore also look better than they did last season, when sales 

 to Taiwan and Singapore fell significantly. 



The region as a whole took 155,000 fewer cartons in 1977/78 

 than during the previous year. This was the first interruption in 

 the steady upward trend in sales since 1970, when only 210,000 car- 

 tons were sold to the Far East. 



Exports to the MIDDLE EAST -- which opened up abruptly last 

 year in response to smaller exports from its traditional supplier, 

 France -- should at least match the 1 million cartons of U.S. apples 

 shipped in 1977/78. 



France and Italy have long dominated this market and will prob- 

 ably try to reclaim their traditional shares. However, some trade 

 sources predict that the United States will exceed last season's 

 performance in this area by a significant margin. 



**************** 



