level. However, because of the higher- than-expected U.S. crop 

 this season, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, exports could 

 exceed this projection. 



Recently, USDA estimated total U.S. sales of fresh apples- 

 domestic and export-at 102,4 million units (42 lb) in 1979/80. 

 Exports alone represented 12.1 percent of these-a sharp contrast 

 to the early 1970 's when exports amounted to less than 3 percent of 

 the total U.S. marketings of fresh apples. 



Export gains this past season were widespread, with advances 

 of 19 percent in Western Europe, 48 percent in Central America, 

 35 percent in both South America and the Caribbean, and 12 per- 

 cent in the Middle East. 



In the Far East, U.S. apple exports to Hong Kong, a key market 

 of long standing, rose 7 percent while those to Singapore, another 

 market of growing importance, expanded 61 percent. 



Further brightening the picture as the all-time high of 3.2 

 million cartons to Canada-an increase of 600,000 from the year 

 earlier. 



While these gains were remarkable, they were overshadowed by 

 the sensational performance in Taiwan. On August 1, 1979 Taiwan 

 liberalized its import policy for apples. U.S. exporters, mostly 

 in the Pacific Northwest, responded quickly, moving 3.4 million 

 cartons to Taiwan. Value of these sales totaled $41.6 million or 

 $12.26 per equivalent 42-pound carton. In the preceding five 

 seasons, U.S. apple exports to this market averaged a mere 134,000 

 cartons . 



A sizable increase was expected following Taiwan's decision 

 to liberalize its import policy, but the final U.S. export volume 

 exceeded expectations. Prior to liberalization, Taiwan's limited 

 import volume drew fantastically high retail prices-sometimes as 

 much as U.S. $1.75 or U.S. $2 per apple. 



With liberalization, many importers sensed an opportunity for 

 large profits. As a result, many newcomers entered the importing 

 business . 



In addition, some established importers of hard goods with no 

 experience in handling perishables got into the market. The result: 

 skyrocketing imports. 



Can the U.S. export performance in Taiwan be repeated in the 

 1980/81 season? This is perhaps the major factor in projecting the 

 quantity of U.S. apple exports for 1980/81. A region-by- region 

 survey follows. 



Far East The big export question is this area centers on 

 Taiwan. Because of the market turbulence last season, those traders 



