-21- 



Table 1. Estimate of tree losses due to bud blast, canker and dieback in 

 1984. 



Orchard cost - return over 10 years 



Cost per tree to produce 5 yr-old tree $39.80 

 Return per tree annually after 5 years 9.00 



Net return after ten years $ 5.20 



Cost of Tree Loss - 10 yr-old tree 



Lost investment in tree - direct % 39.80 



Lost income from tree - potential 45.00 



Cost to replace tree X bring to production 39.8 



Total loss over 10 years $124.60" 



If we limit the discussion to trees between 1st and l?th leaf, we see 

 that the grower will make approximately $63 per tree. Hence, if a grower 

 loses a tree that is B years old, he has lost $39.80 already invested, a 

 potential of $45.00 over the next 5 years of bearing, and another $39.80 

 required to bring a new tree into bearing. This does not include the cost 

 of running equipment at less than maximum efficiency, due to the production 

 loss, e.g. the cost of running a storage facility at less than capacity. A 

 conservative estimate of the loss of a tree is $125 over ten years 

 (Table 1). 



From our estimates it appears that 5% of the young trees were lost, and 

 there was damage to another 10%. If trees were grown at an average density 

 of 125 per acre, and the average grower devoted 20 acres to young trees, the 

 average loss per grower is 125 trees, plus 250 trees damaged. At a loss of 

 $125/tree, the cost of this epidemic alone was $15,625 per grower to replace 

 the trees and bring them to production. Without replacement, the average 

 grower would lose $10,625 in trees and potential production. If production 

 on the damaged trees is ciit 25%, that translates to $590 lost per year, 

 assuming gradual recovery at 5% per year, a $1,750 loss over 5 years. 

 Therefore, the grower who replaces trees would lose a total of $17,375 over 

 the 10 years. This assumes no further damage occurs. If just 25 orchards 

 suffered this level of damage, the loss over the 10 years would be $434,375 

 (with replacement) or $309,374 (withoiit replacement) for an average loss of 

 $43,000 or $31,000 per year. 



Rud blast, canker, and dieback have been most prevalent and severe in 

 Massachusetts. The Marshall Mcintosh was also discovered in Massachusetts. 

 We intend to pursue the problem to determine whether the bacteria and fungi 

 we have isolated are pathogenic to apple and what role cold injury plays in 

 disease development. Whether Marshall Mcintosh is highly susceptible or not 

 will also be determined. 



In pursuing this work we are fortunate to have the generous support of 

 the Massachusetts Fruit Growers Association who have contributed $1600 

 towards the effort. 



