the latter was a large crop, yet the average for 

 the six subsequent crops is 266,000,000, while the 

 estimate for the last year of the six was 292,000,- 

 000. Distributed according to population, there 

 was 4.3 bushels per head.in 1849 ; 5.5 in 1859 ; 7.46 

 in 1869, and for the period since 6.6 bushels. This 

 shows an increase of more than fifty per cent, in 

 the proportion of supply in twenty- six years, 

 and is exactly in accordance with the history of 

 the several crop years, and is a proof of the sub- 

 stantial correctness of these estimates. 



The export figures illustrate further the fact 

 of the large increase of wheat production. The 

 total export of wheat and Hour in fifty years is 

 equivalent to 1,062,000,000 bushels of wheat, of 

 which 91,000,OOU were shipped during a single 

 year, 1874. The exports of one-half of this period 

 up to 1850, were only 178,000,000 Jess than twice 

 those of 1874. The heavy increase during recent 

 years is especially noteworthy, nearly half this 

 semi-centennial aggregate having been shipped 

 in ten years. While our population has nearly 

 doubled since 1849, the quantity of all cereals 

 taken together has more than doubled. The 

 census reported 867,000,000 bushels; allowing 

 something for incompleteness of that enumera- 

 tion, the 2,000,000,000 bushels produced in 1875 

 allow a distribution of 46 bushels to each inhab- 

 itant, in place of 37.4 census bushels, or possibly 

 40 with a complete enumeration. Our average 

 supply since the last census exceeds 40 bushels : 

 and thus is demonstrated the remarkable fact 

 that with our rapid increase in numbers, per- 

 haps without a parallel, we not only keep up our 

 high standard of cereal production but actually 

 advance it. This is owing to our vast areas in 

 instant readiness for the plow, to our advance 

 in variety and perfection of agricultural ma- 

 chinery, and to the stimulus of a foreign de- 

 mand which has never been so pressing as dur- 

 ing the last ten years. It is possible to double 

 our present population without diminishing 

 this high rate of supply. There is more danger 

 at present of over-production and unremunera- 

 tive prices, than of scarcity. The proportion 

 engaged in agriculture in the West is still too 

 large, and far too large in the Sou^h, and the 

 withdrawal of workers from rural to other in- 

 dustrial arts would not only greatly facilitate 

 the creation of wealth, but would siiniulate in- 

 vention, labor-saving skill and industry in agri- 

 culture. 



Having reached the conclusion that corn pro- 

 duction is not declining, aud that the supply of 

 wheat has increased fifty per cent., what can we 

 say as to the meat supply and the numbers of 

 horses? As to the latter, it is not found, ac- 

 cording to the fears of too conservative farmers 

 of a former generation, that multiplying rail- 

 roads tends to diminish the use of horses. More 

 horses are now used in taking people to the 

 train than were formerly required to perform 

 the whole journey. The census reports only the 

 horses of the farm, without reference to those 



of the town or city, but for comparison, taking 

 the numbers in proportion to population, there 

 were nearly twenty to each one hundred people 

 in 1850, quite twenty in 1860, and notwithstand- 

 ing the waste of the war, eighteen in 1870. The 

 increase since has at least equaled the advance 

 in population. Coming to cattle, while we know 

 that the numbers in the census are too low, es- 

 pecially for Texas, California and the Territories, 

 we may use them for comparison purposes, 

 From 1850 to 1860 we find the number of all kinds 

 of cattle slightly increasing, from 77 to 81 to 

 each hundred of the population, and then wit- 

 ness a decline to 62 in 1870. Since that date the 

 numbers have increased, but not materially 

 faster that the population. The consumption in 

 the war was a prominent cause of the decline, 

 and a growing preference to horses as a substi- 

 tute for working oxen tended to further reduc- 

 tion. The supply of sheep per capita was some- 

 what greater in 1870 than in 1860, the ratio rising 

 from 70 to 73, but less than in 1850, when there 

 were 93 per hundred of population. But the 

 most marked decline in supply has been in 

 swine, the figures in these decennial periods 

 being respectively 129, 105 and 65. The tendency 

 is to still further decline in some of the princi- 

 pal swine districts. 



There is another statistical point of especial 

 interest in this connection. While numbers have 

 declined in proportion to population the value 

 of all farm animals divided among the popula- 

 tion would give about $24 per head in 1850, $34 

 m 1860, and $44 in 1870. Not only has scarcity 

 increased the value, but improvements in breeds 

 has added size and weight, so that with smaller 

 relative numbers we are able to feed our people 

 and ship more beef and pork and lard than ever. 

 Here is food for reflection. Here is the cause of 

 advancing prices of beef and pork. And it is 

 fortunate that increase in meat production is 

 consonant with a higher and more intensive ag- 

 riculture; that it is in fact one of the essential 

 conditions of such improvement. And if we can 

 act upon the suggestion of Mr. Harris in his ad- 

 dress last evening, and perfect breeds of meat- 

 producers that shall be able to assimilate a larger 

 proportion of the fat-and-meat producing ele- 

 ments contained in the food supplied, we shall 

 hasten the adoption of a system of agriculture 

 that shall be restorative and not exhaustive. 



We thus learn from statistics that grain-grow- 

 ing exclusively, though remunerative as a tem- 

 porary expedient, is a speculation and not true 

 farming. Land in the prairies worth $50 per 

 acre is bought for $5, and its true value is dis- 

 counted in installments; i. 6. the soil is plun- 

 dered piecemeal and converted into wheat and 

 cash, to furnish means for fencing and house- 

 building, and to supply capital to the pioneer 

 farmer. In this point of view it has been remu- 

 nerative as a pioneer expedient, but with a farm 

 equipped for the work of a long future, the su- 

 perior profit of a restorative system in which 



