The Movements of Countrymen 107 



variations in geographic location or percent Negro in the 

 total population. 



In view of the importance of land tenure as outlined in 

 Part I, this factor suggests itself immediately. For the 

 benefit of those who may have a more scientific interest in 

 the Negro population movements and social measurements, a 

 more accurate statistical determination of the relation 

 between changes in land tenure and rural population move- 

 ment between 1900 and 1910 is given in the statistical appen- 

 dix. 



The previous chapter (Map II and Diagram I) indicated 

 that increase in populatio n and increase in far ms are closely 

 ron necte3. The, mere/presentation of the fart that farms 

 and population show similar rates of increase in the coun- 

 ties as grouped in Diagram I leaves two questions unsolved : 

 first, the fact that the two fluctuate together does not 

 show which is the cause and which the effect; second, it 

 does not show the extent to which one is the cause of the 

 other. 



The first difficulty is one which arises because so many 

 social and economic phenomena may be now a cause and 

 again an effect of other phenomena. This is the case 

 with land tenure and population movement. In 

 decreasing counties it is easy to see how both could be 

 true. Worn out land, or landlords who would rather let 

 their land lie idle than grant Negroes' demands to rent, 

 would cause an exodus from the county. On the other hand, 

 an exodus caused by some external factor such as higher 

 wages could easily cause a decrease in farms cultivated. 

 Unless, however, agricultural conditions remain less favor- 

 able in the deserted section than in surrounding areas, 

 laborers and share tenants will be brought back. Over a con- 

 siderable period of time, therefore, even in decreasing coun- 

 ties the cause-effect relationship seems to have been from 

 farming conditions to population movement more than from 

 population movement to farming conditions. In counties 



