HEALTH AND BUSINESS 88 



The lower curve in Figure 2 represents temperance. In other 

 words, it is the inverted curve of the consumption of alcoholic 

 liquor per capita. The general increase in consumption has been 

 eliminated as explained in the Appendix, and the curve shows the 

 percentages by which the actual consumption departed from what 

 would be expected if the increase from year to year were steady. 

 The curve has been inverted so that good conditions are repre- 

 sented by high parts and bad by low. The resemblance between 

 the curves of health and temperance is obvious. Notice how they 

 both rise to a high level in 1878, 1885, and in the period from 1897 

 to 1901. The temperance reformer may say, "Ah, here we have 

 the widespread cause of variations in the deathrate. It is drink 

 which does the business." Further study, however, shows that this 

 is not the case. Doubtless the use of alcoholic liquors increases 

 the deathrate, but something else is the main controlling factor 

 both in health and in business. The proof of this lies in an exami- 

 nation of the lowest points of the two curves. Almost always 

 health reaches its lowest ebb before the consumption of liquor 

 becomes greatest. Poor health in 1872 is followed by much drink- 

 ing in 1873, the same relation holds between 1881 and 1882, 

 between 1887 and 1888, between 1891 and 1893, between 1895 

 and 1896, and between 1910 and 1911. In other cases, such as 

 1900, 1903, and 1907, the two curves drop together, but as a rule 

 the temperance curve lags behind the other. 



How shall we interpret this relationship between health and 

 temperance? In the United States the drinking of alcoholic 

 liquors is to a large degree a question of moral strength. The 

 case with us is not the same as in Europe. There, before the 

 Great War, beer, ale, and similar drinks were a regular part of 

 the food supply. No moral question was generally involved in 

 their use. Hence their consumption varied almost directly in 

 proportion to the buying power of the community. In the United 

 States, however, the proportion of people who drink in this way 

 is comparatively small. The vast majority think that drinking 



