HEALTH AND BUSINESS 39 



nent features m this curve, as in all the others, are the maximum 

 following the good health of 1878 and the minimum following the 

 poor health of 1891. The bank deposits, like the prices, lag about 

 four years behind the conditions of health. This is because when 

 bank clearings become active there is a certain amount of lag 

 before the money actually on deposit reaches a maximum. 



A still greater lag, about five years, occurs in the case of 

 immigration, curve G in Figure 4. The greatest forces in bringing 

 immigrants to this country are the reports of their friends as to 

 high wages and the money that those already here send over to 

 pay the passage of their relatives. Activity in the New York 

 market, high prices of commodities in general, and abundant 

 deposits in the national banks are all signs of business activity, 

 plentiful work, and good wages. Thus it is not surprising that 

 the high tide of immigration follows a year or two after high- 

 water mark in" these other lines. The surprising thing is to find 

 that the curve of immigration at an interval of five years almost 

 reproduces the curve of health. Compare the two once more. 

 Remember that during five years many other conditions aside from 

 health have an opportunity to act. Remember also that, although 

 the prosperity of the United States is a deciding factor in the 

 volume of immigration, hard times, political disturbances, and 

 racial jealousies across the water are highly important. Yet, in 

 spite of all these other factors, the curve of immigration faith- 

 fully reflects the main fluctuations of the curve of health. 



Finally, for the benefit of the reader who does not believe that 

 any one condition gives a true picture of the prosperity of the 

 country, I have prepared curve H. It is the average of C to G. 

 Each of these five is reckoned as of equal importance, and each is 

 given a lag corresponding to that shown in Figure 4. This is 

 legitimate, for it takes time for health to be converted into good 

 habits, for mental activity to be converted into bank clearings, 

 for a business decision to be converted into a factory, and for 

 high wages to be converted into immigrants. Thus we may say 



